The Golden State Warriors welcomed Jimmy Butler back for Game 4, and Butler led the Dubs to a home victory over the Houston Rockets and a commanding 3-1 series lead.
My Warriors vs Rockets predictions expect Alperen Sengun to do all he can to lead his team to victory and for Butler to stay hot on the road.
Read why in my NBA picks for this April 29 matchup.
Who will win Warriors vs Rockets Game 5?
I’m leaning Golden State here, as the Rockets have found no ability to get consistent buckets in this series.
Given Houston’s desperation, I won’t be surprised if it comes out hot. I’ll go with the Warriors closing out this series, but I will be more comfortable taking the points.
Warriors vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Alperen Sengun Over 35.5 points+rebounds+assists (-115 at bet365)
The Houston Rockets have struggled on offense in this series, but Alperen Sengun has been a lone bright spot. The big man is shooting 45.6% on a team-high 19.8 field goal attempts through the first four games, leading the Rockets with 22.3 points per contest.
Not only has Sengun led the team in scoring, but he’s been Houston’s leading rebounder and a key facilitator, averaging 11.5 boards and 4.3 dimes. The big man is posting 38.1 PRA per game in this series, and he’s gone for at least 36 three times.
Sengun's success against the Golden State Warriors also dates back to the regular season. In nine total matchups with the Dubs in 2024-25, he’s averaged 34.9 PRA and hit the Over on this line five times.
The matchup with Golden State’s undersized lineup has been beneficial to Sengun, as Golden State has allowed the fourth-most points in the paint per game (46.5) during the playoffs. The Warriors sport the lowest rebound percentage (44.5), and the team has allowed the most rebounds to opponents at 47.8.
Sengun is in a great position to cook in front of the home crowd, and he’ll surely be fired up to keep his team alive in the postseason for at least one more game.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Alperen Sengun Over 35.5 points+rebounds+assists
Jimmy Butler Over 30.5 points+rebounds+assists
Warriors +4
Jimmy Butler played his usual minutes in Game 4 after returning from injury. In Games 1 and 4, he logged at least 40 minutes in both and posted exactly 38 PRA in each.
Butler averaged 41.6 PRA in four games leading up to the first-round series with Houston, and I expect him to stay hot in Game 5 with just one game between the Warriors and a trip to the Western Conference semifinals.
I’m not fond of the moneyline pick in this game as outlined above, but I’m confident that the Warriors — win or lose — will keep this within four points. Golden State has the two best players in this series and significantly more playoff experience, giving the Warriors a clear advantage in an otherwise competitive series that has been tight throughout.
A win in Game 5 will clinch the series and give the Warriors some much-needed time off before the semifinals, so expect them to come out swinging.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Rockets odds
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +4 | Houston -4
- Moneyline: Golden State +145 | Houston -170
- Over/Under: Over 204 | Under 204
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State is 6-3 ATS across nine matchups with Houston this season.
- The Warriors and Rockets hit the Under in seven of nine matchups this season.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in five games at Houston this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
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