The Boston Celtics look to land the knockout punch against the Orlando Magic in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series tonight.
Boston is back home in the Garden with a 3-1 series lead and priced as double-digit favorites to finish off Orlando.
I go beyond the spread and total for this matchup and provide my top NBA player prop picks for the Magic vs. Celtics on April 29. Be sure to also check out our full Magic vs. Celtics predictions!
Best Magic vs Celtics props
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Brown o23.5 points+assists (-115) -
Wagner o4.5 assists (+110) - Caldwell-Pope o1.5 threes (+150)
Magic vs Celtics player props for April 29
Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 points+assists (-115 at bet365)
The Orlando Magic have done a good job throwing a wrench in the Boston Celtics’ attack this series, taking away the 3-pointer and playing a physical brand of defense through four games.
However, Orlando started to show cracks in Game 4 and the Celtics were much more aggressive in their approach. Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis looked to get inside, and Jaylen Brown took notice after scoring 21 points on 6-for-16 shooting on Sunday. Brown had this to say to the media:
You know, I could be better. I will be better in my spots. I didn’t feel like I was aggressive as I needed to be, but they’re just forcing us to make plays one-on-one, trying to bait us into that. But if we got a great matchup, we just got to be able to make them pay. But I think we can be, I can be even better. So, I’m looking forward to Game 5.
With Brown picking up his aggressiveness, his points production could see a shot in the arm. Current Game 5 models call for more than 20 points from the shooting guard, who’s averaging 23 points in this Round 1 series.
Brown’s playmaking hasn’t been as fruitful, as he’s recorded two or fewer assists in three of the first four games, including only one assist in each of the two games in Orlando. He averaged 4.5 dimes on the season (and dished out five assists in Game 2), and player forecasts call for four or more assists tonight.
The high side of Brown’s projections call for 22 points and 4.4 assists, which is more than enough to top his combo prop of 23.5 points+assists for Game 5.
Franz Wagner Over 4.5 assists (+110 at bet365)
Franz Wagner has stuffed the stat sheet in this series, including upping his passing prowess with an average of six assists through the first four games.
Wagner, who is averaging 8.0 potential assists vs. Boston, dished out seven dimes on nine potential assists in Game 4, blowing away his assist total of 4.5 O/U. The Game 5 props have the market set at the same Over/Under, with the Over paying +110 at bet365.
Most player projections for tonight sit just north of 4.5 assists for Orlando’s big man, with a high of 4.8 dimes. Those aren’t the most convincing forecasts, but Wagner has increased his passing prowess in recent outings.
As mentioned when I bet this same prop Over on Sunday, Wagner dished out five or more assists in 11 of his final 17 games of the regular season and handed out five, four, eight and seven assists in the opening four games of this series.
He’s playing 40+ minutes and touching the ball on most possessions, as he and Paolo Banchero have been the Magic’s most reliable offensive options.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 threes (+150 at bet365)
If the Magic are going to live to fight another day, they need points from their role players.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hasn’t answered that bell so far in the series, scoring a total of only 17 points in four games — 12 of those coming from 3-point buckets.
He made 2 of 4 shots from beyond the arc in both Game 1 and Game 4 but went a collective 0-for-8 in the two middle games of this series.
Prop odds call for KCP to jack up at least four attempts from distance in Game 5, and player projections concur, with models as high as 4.5 shots from outside. I think that ceiling could be even higher, considering the size of this spread and the circumstances of an elimination game.
Projections for Caldwell-Pope are at 1.5 makes or higher, and the game script has me leaning to the higher end of those forecasts. Even at 1.6 projected 3-pointers made, the Over 1.5 should be listed around +120. Some operators offer this result as low as +115, but we can find it at +150 at bet365.
Nothing says elimination game like sweating out a KCP prop.
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