Raptors vs Heat Picks and Predictions: VanVleet Uses Three To His Advantage

The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat will experience one of the first quirks of this new NBA schedule, as the Eastern Conference foes will face off in Miami for the second time since Saturday. 

Miami won 112-109 in a game full of twists and turns. The Heatles lead the Raps by 24 at one point before a furious fourth-quarter comeback that fell just short. Toronto did most of that without star sophomore Scottie Barnes, who left with an ankle injury.

Barnes is questionable for this matchup as well but NBA odds have Miami as a similarly priced 3.5-point home favorite. Who will step up for tonight?

I dig through the numbers and bring you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Heat. 

Raptors vs Heat best odds

Raptors vs Heat picks and predictions

Despite a 1-2 start, the Raptors look like they could be a really fun team to follow this season with their high energy — and even higher basketball IQ. Well, as long as Scottie Barnes stays healthy.

Even with the Barnes injury, the Raptors worked to claw their way back into Saturday’s game. And how did they do that? With the three-ball of course.

Unsung guys like Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, and Precious Achiuwa combined to go 10-for-23 from beyond the arc in the game. But someone who couldn’t find his rhythm on Saturday was Mr. bet on yourself, Fred VanVleet.

VanVleet went just 1-for-6 from downtown, but knowing the type of player Freddy is and getting this matchup with the Heat is going to have us betting on his NBA player props too. 

Part of that is because Miami continues to think guarding the 3-point line is overrated. Last season, it gave up the fourth-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA and that has continued so far this year, ranking 20th in opponent 3-point attempts and 21st in opponent 3-point percentage through three games.

VanVleet shoots threes. A lot of them. While hitting them at a pretty great rate. This is a guy who shot 40.3% from deep on nearly 10 attempts per game last season.

With Barnes questionable, don’t be surprised if VanVleet tries to carry more of the load tonight. He also hit four more threes in three of his four games vs. the Heat last season. Back "Steady Freddy" to light up the Heat tonight.

My best bet: Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 made threes (+125)

Raptors vs Heat spread analysis

Raptors fans can let out a collective sigh of relief as it is now sounding like Scottie Barnes’ ankle injury is not as bad as initially feared. That said, he’s believed to be a game-time decision for this matchup against the Heat. And honestly, if it’s close I wouldn’t be shocked if they gave their budding star a little extra time to heal up. 

With that in mind, it is interesting that the Heat are basically the same 3.5-point home favorites that they were on Saturday night. Saying Barnes doesn’t affect the line for Toronto is a bit of an oversight by sportsbooks I would say. 

Additionally, while the Raptors are expected to get Chris Boucher back for this game, role player Otto Porter Jr. is still out with a hamstring injury. 

And then there was the game itself. A cold second quarter allowed the Heat to go into the half with a 71-50 lead. Even though the Raps were able to mount a comeback, they were never really able to slow down Miami, who shot 50% from the field. 

Those cold stretches could be a theme for Toronto this season, as the team doesn’t feature a ton of knockdown shooters. While Miami has Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and is one of the few teams that can make the argument, they are better coached than the Raptors. If Barnes doesn’t play I believe the Heat are being underpriced here.

Raptors vs Heat Over/Under analysis

Saturday’s total closed at 215.5 and despite going Over that number by 5.5 points, that’s where we are Monday afternoon after opening at 217. I’m inclined to agree with the money, for many of the same reasons I’m leaning towards the Heat if Scottie can’t go.

The Raptors' half-court offense is still a work in progress and they’ve continuously shown since the start of last season that the offense can go flat at times. We've seen that already this season as the team is averaging just 107.3 points per game.

On top of that, the team isn’t getting a whole lot of production outside of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Barnes.

Not that Miami is that much better when it comes to filling up the bucket. The Heat rank 18th in offensive rating through three games, putting up a mediocre 108 points per contest.

Throw in the fact that Miami and Toronto rank 22nd and 28th in the NBA when it comes to pace and I’m leaning toward the Under here.

Raptors vs Heat betting trend to know

The Under is 9-2 in the Raptors' last 11 road games dating back to last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.

Raptors vs Heat game info

Raptors vs Heat key injuries

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