The Toronto Raptors’ 2023-24 season mercifully comes to a close with a pair of games in South Beach against the Miami Heat.
The Raptors will try to end the season on a high note, but the NBA odds don’t like their chances as the Heat are on the board as double-digit home favorites and are hoping to avoid the play-in tournament.
I break down this Eastern Conference matchup in my Raptors vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks.
Raptors vs Heat predictions
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 threes (+135 at PointsBet)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Ever since the Toronto Raptors began their roster rebuild, we have witnessed more playmaking, ball movement, and buckets. However, that also came at the cost of a massive drop-off in defense.
The Raptors have the NBA’s second-worst defensive rating since January 1, and they also rank dead last in rebounding rate and allow the third most opponent assists per possession.
Coming into tonight's contest against the Miami Heat, the Raps have the fourth-worst opponent-effective field goal percentage. They rank 25th in opponent-made threes per possession and 26th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Suffice it to say, Miami sharpshooter Tyler Herro is going to hit some shots tonight. Herro missed more than a month with a foot injury and has been back for the last four games.
Despite knocking off some rust since his return to the floor, Herro is still shooting 39.4% from downtown for the season and is taking more than eight threes per game. This matchup vs. a shaky Raptors D is perfect for Herro to heat up, so take the Heat guard to hit four or more threes at solid plus money.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 threes
Raptors +14.5
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 rebounds
While the Raptors have not been a great basketball team ever since Scottie Barnes broke his hand, the return of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley has made them undervalued down the stretch.
Toronto has covered two straight when listed as double-digit underdogs. The Raps recently upset the Bucks 117-111 as 14-point pups and lost by just four to the Nets as 11-point dogs on Wednesday. With RJ and IQ expected to suit up tonight, 14.5 is too many points being laid by Miami.
Let’s close this same-game parlay out by picking on the Raps when it comes to cleaning the glass. As I said, they have the worst rebounding rate in the NBA since Jan. 1. Jimmy Butler is averaging 5.3 rebounds per game this season and has grabbed eight or more in two of his last three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +13.5 | Miami -13.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +650 | Miami -1,000
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference battle as 13.5-point underdogs, but that big spread hasn't stopped bettors from backing the Heat, with the line now at Toronto +14.5.
- The Heat have been double-digit favorites four times in March. They are just 1-2-1 ATS in those games.
- The total hit the board at 218.5 and that's where it remains as of early Friday afternoon.
- The Heat have been one of the best Under bets this season, cashing it in 59% of their games.
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Raptors vs Heat trend
The Raptors have hit the 1H moneyline in six of their last 11 away games for +10.10 Units and an 89% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
Raptors vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, TSN |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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