The Toronto Raptors' reprieve from a difficult early-season schedule looks short-lived as they head west to take on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.
The Raptors have put together back-to-back dominating victories over the Atlanta Hawks and the San Antonio Spurs. They not only filled the bucket in those games but their defense remained stingy. But they will have their hands full with Doncic who is among the early-season NBA MVP odds favorites.
I dig through the odds and bring you my best bet in this edition of NBA picks and predictions Raptors vs. Mavericks.
Raptors vs Mavericks best odds
Raptors vs Mavericks picks and predictions
The Raptors are coming off their best two offensive performances of the season by putting up 139 points against the Hawks and following that up by pouring in 143 points the last time out against the Spurs. All without All-Star point guard Fred VanVleet no less.
So, with all those points in the last two games, it might be a little surprising to see a total of 216.5 for this matchup against the Mavericks. But even that number might be a little too high.
The Raptors are a really interesting team. They are basically a group of five long, athletic, position-less guys who can switch all over the place, and disrupt passing lanes. They rank seventh in defensive rating, and first in steals at 10.8 per game. That results in an epic transition game. They lead the league in fast break points by a fairly large margin.
However, when the Raptors are in their half-court offense, things really slow down and even with that transition offense they still rank 25th in NBA when it comes to pace. They just don’t have great individual shot creators and the offense can go cold at times as a result.
In the offensive outburst over the last two games, the Raptors have notched 29 steals. But in this matchup, the Mavericks are very careful with the ball, ranking fourth in turnover rate.
The Mavericks also love to slow things down. In fact, they play at the slowest pace in the NBA. And while the offense is rated highly at the moment, in games against the Jazz, Pelicans, and Suns, (all three rank in the Top 12 in defensive rating) they have averaged just 106.3 points per contest.
Luka Doncic has been incredible so far, averaging 34 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists this season, but between Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam, the Raptors will be able to throw a lot of bodies at Doncic and give him problems.
The tempo of this game will be slow enough to stay Under this number.
My best bet: Under 216.5 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Raptors vs Mavericks spread analysis
The Raptors opened this matchup as 4-point NBA odds underdogs and have since had a bit of action, moving the line to 3.5.
It’s another small spread for the Raptors, who have seen seven of their eight games get lined within 3.5 points and they’ve been very comfortable in those situations going 5-2 against the spread in those games. Toronto’s style of play and high effort tends to have them consistently playing in tight games, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened once again in Dallas tonight.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have battled consistency this season. They responded to a season-opening loss to the Suns by dismantling the Grizzlies but followed that up with an embarrassing performance against a Pelicans team that was missing several key players.
They also already have a loss against OKC and played a tight game with Orlando. As a result, the Mavs haven’t covered a spread in four of their last five games.
Mix in the expected slow tempo in this matchup and that tends to be an advantage for the underdog. Not an official play for me, but I think the Raps play in another close game, maybe even eke out a win. I’d lean toward taking the points.
Raptors vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis
Well, you know my feelings on the total. Even at a shorter number than some would expect, I still like the Under. The number hit the board at 217 and has been bet down slightly to 216.5. That said, I would jump on the Under quickly before it gets much lower.
Once again, I like the Under because of the pace of play of both teams. Their suffocating defense should slow down Doncic. While their half-court offense leaves something to be desired. Plus, neither team turns the over the ball a lot.
The Under is also 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams, including going 2-0 in both of last year’s matchups.
Raptors vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the Raptors' last eight games when facing a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Mavericks.
Raptors vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, November 4, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports Southwest Dallas |
Raptors vs Mavericks key injuries
