Raptors vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: All Eyes North as 'Sota Defends Home Floor

The Timberwolves have won seven straight at home, including an overtime victory last night. In fact, they haven’t lost at home since 2021. Can the Raptors not only halt that Minnesota streak, but also snap their own two-game losing streak?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Raptors at Timberwolves on February 16, with tip set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Raptors vs Timberwolves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened as 1-point favorites early Wednesday morning, and while that briefly became a pick’em, it more broadly moved away from the Timberwolves, rising to +2.5 underdogs by early afternoon. The total opened as high as 230.5 before sunrise, dropping to 227.5 by lunchtime.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Raptors vs Timberwolves predictions

• Prediction: Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 227.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Timberwolves moneyline (+120)

Predictions made on 2/16/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Raptors vs Timberwolves game info

• Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, BSN

Raptors vs Timberwolves betting preview

Key injuries

Raptors: Fred VanVleet PG (Questionable).
Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Timberwolves’ games have hit the Over in five straight, despite their last three games having the three highest totals of the NBA season at 239.5, 240.5, and 244.5 last night. Only one of Minnesota’s last 11 games has gone Under its total. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Timberwolves.

Raptors vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Timberwolves have begun rewarding their fans, a fanbase that has not known much in the way of happiness since Kevin Garnett left. Pulling off a win Tuesday night against the Hornets, despite absolutely horrid shooting, kept the winning streak alive in unexpected fashion. That was a version of resilience that has not been seen around the Timberwolves franchise.

Winning when playing badly — and it really was badly, as Minnesota shot 62.8% from the free throw line and 23.6% from deep — is as important as winning when playing better opponents. No disrespect intended toward the Hornets, but the Raptors qualify as a better opponent. Surface-level stats, the eye test, nearly any metric confirm that difference. Toronto’s point differential is 2.5 points better per game than Charlotte’s, for example.

But the Raptors have lost their last two games, despite being favored in both of them. Those two losses ended not only an eight-game winning streak, but an eight-game stretch of beating the spread.

This is the last game for both Toronto and Minnesota before entering the All-Star break. While they both may be already looking forward to the week off, the Raptors may have already started their break, while the Timberwolves have a chance to get there with some momentum.

Prediction: Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There is a good chance the Covers editorial desk read the above “Betting Trend to Know” and is now confused by the Over/Under prediction. Stick with me.

Minnesota’s defense has collapsed. That led to ballooning totals over the last week, the three highest totals in the NBA this season. And each time, the Timberwolves and their opponent combined to break past that total, though overtime was needed to squeeze past the Tuesday total of 244.5. Heading into the extra period, Minnesota and Charlotte had put up “only” 216 total points.

The Timberwolves’ horrid shooting was the primary change. Missing 42 shots from beyond the arc will torpedo most Over hopes, but their defense kept them in the game, holding the Hornets to 8-of-33 from deep.

Anthony Edwards sprained his ankle last night, and with a chance to get a full week of rest ahead of him, this may be the rare moment when Edwards sits on the bench despite the optimistic “questionable” tag. With him out, the Timberwolves offense should fall off, perhaps even further, while it can be argued its defense may hold up a bit better.

More than anything, though, the rising totals in Minnesota this last week simply got out of hand. This may be the best offense in the league over the last month, but three straight games with totals of 240 and higher was an overreaction. Tonight’s total may be lower on paper, but that overreaction still applies. Fading that until it properly corrects will be a smart approach.

Prediction: Under 227.5 (-110)

Best bet

Shop. Always shop. As this spread increased to 2.5 points, not all moneylines rose appropriately with it, but if able to find a +120, the 30-cent difference between the spread and the outright upset makes the risk of a close loss tolerable.

Winning seven straight games at home is not easy. After the sixth win, D’Angelo Russell expressed disappointment in how the Timberwolves fans were reacting, still lukewarm in their belief that this team might deserve investment. That’s what happens when a franchise has struggled for so long despite so many changes over and over again.

But on Tuesday night, Russell’s challenge was met with an atmosphere that has not been enjoyed in Minnesota for a long, long time. Plenty of Raptors are certainly used to raucous environments, particularly after the joys that was Toronto during the 2019 Finals. But in this instance, with a weeklong break just ahead, the Raptors are not thinking of overcoming a crowd. They are thinking of a beach.

Even without Edwards, Russell & Co. should now reward those fans once more. It is the team’s turn, in that respect, to respond to Tuesday’s crowd with further reason to cheer.

Pick: Timberwolves moneyline (+120)

Pages related to this topic