NBA Slam Dunk Contest Contest Odds, Rules, Picks, and Predictions: McClung Rightful Favorite

Perhaps even more than the All-Star Game itself, an NBA All-Star Weekend’s verdict is defined by the success — or failure — of the Slam Dunk Contest. There were the Halcyon days when the NBA’s superstars like Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins, and Vince Carter competed, and thrilled during Saturday night’s feature event.

Recent years have been leaner, with the league reaching deep into NBA (or G-League) rotations for suitable and willing participants, including last year’s winner and defending champion Mac McClung. But Jaylen Brown becomes the first All-Star participant in the Slam Dunk Contest in several years does add to the drama for Saturday, February 17.

I walk you through the format, rules, and NBA odds for my best NBA Slam Dunk Contest betting picks below.

NBA Slam Dunk Contest odds

Player	Team
Mac McClung	Osceola Magic (G-League)	-275
Jaylen Brown	Boston Celtics	+550
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	Miami Heat	+800
Jacob Toppin	New York Knicks	+850

Odds courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook, February 17, 2024.

NBA Slam Dunk Contest rules

Before wagering on the Slam Dunk Contest, be sure to familiarize yourself with the latest rules for the 2024 edition:

• Four players will compete in a two-round competition.
  
  
• Five judges will score each dunk based on a score ranging from 40-50. 
  
  
• The two dunkers with the highest combined scores from their first two dunks advance to the finals.
  
  
• The final round will consist of two dunks by each dunker, with the highest composite score being crowned the champion.
  
  
• In the event of a tie, there will be one additional round of dunks. If the event is still tied, then the judges will be empowered to declare a winner by majority vote.

NBA Slam Dunk Contest favorites

Mac McClung (-275)

Mac McClung is attempting to become the first participant to win back-to-back dunk contests since Zach LaVine in 2015-2016. 

McClung's very inclusion is controversial, as while he’s the reigning champion, he is not on an NBA roster. Last season he was briefly called up by the Philadelphia 76ers from their G-league team to at least make him an NBA player in name, this season there doesn’t seem to be any attempt at a similar legitimizing act.

Still, there’s no arguing with the results. Mac is a massive favorite and his edge in the odds is only growing having moved from -200 to -275 from Thursday to Friday afternoon. He has a ridiculous 43.5-inch vertical and has shown the necessary creativity to dominate the event.

Jaylen Brown (+550)

Jaylen Brown deciding to enter this year’s contest injected the entire affair with a level of legitimacy and overall juice that was sorely needed. Brown is an All-NBA caliber player on the league’s best team and one with serious hops to boot. 

But can he actually win?

Brown is clearly the best overall athlete of any of the participants and he also has the most NBA experience, name recognition, and level of fandom. The latter points won’t matter if he can’t hit his dunks, but they could be the difference in a tight competition against the lesser names in the contest.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+800)

It’s hard to know what to make of Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s inclusion in Saturday’s event. Jaquez has been one of the most impressive rookies in a stacked draft class, in no small part because he plays a mature, crafty style, not unlike his Miami Heat teammate Jimmy Butler.

But also like Butler, he plays mostly below the rim in the NBA. 

Still, he does have a history of being an impressive dunker at the lower levels. He beat KJ Martin in a dunk contest in high school and flashed some serious hops and creativity in the process. If he still has that level to his game, he could surprise some people.

Jacob Toppin (+850)

If you’re getting a minor sense of deja vu when reading Jacob Toppin’s name on the program, you’re not alone. Jacob is a deep bench forward to the New York Knicks, and brother to former Knicks player and 2022 Slam Dunk Contest winner, Obi Toppin.

I would expect that Obi, as a former champ and current Indiana Pacer, will make an appearance in Jacob’s dunk attempts. Jacob is alleged to be a better dunker than Obi, but in terms of what it takes to dunk a basketball, Obi is one of the best athletes in the Association. 

Jacob has some nice highlight dunks in the G-League this season, but he hasn’t shown that level of talent in the NBA as of yet. All of which makes him perhaps the most difficult participant to forecast.

NBA Slam Dunk Contest pick

The odds are not particularly enticing, but it’s hard to pick against a professional dunker in McClung. While Brown, Toppin, and Jaquez Jr. will have been brainstorming dunks and practicing a potential routine for a few months (if that) McClung has a deep reservoir of potential dunks to pull from.

McClung didn’t miss a single attempt on any of his four dunk attempts and only received one rating below a perfect score. He’s not going to be intimidated by the stage, he’s going to come in with confidence and earned anticipation.

He’s talked ahead of time about trying three dunks that have never been done in a Slam Dunk Contest before. That creativity works to his advantage, as to repeat as a champion he’ll need to innovate and stand out even from his previous work.

For what it's worth, I do think there is some value to taking Brown as a hedge at +550. But with my best bet, I’m backing Mac.

Best bet: Mac McClung (-275 at bet365)

Past Slam Dunk Contest winners

Year	Player
2023	Mac McClung
2022	Obi Toppin
2021	Anfernee Simons
2020	Derrick Jones Jr.
2019	Hamidou Diallo
2018	Donovan Mitchell
2017	Glen Robinson III
2016	Zach LaVine
2015	Zach LaVine
2014	John Wall

McClung is seeking to become the first repeat winner since Zach LaVine in 2016. Overall, perimeter players have captured nine of the past 10 Dunk Contest titles, a figure that will hold with no big men participating in this year's contest.

Players who have won multiple Dunk Contests

Player	Years
Zach LaVine	2015, 2016
Nate Robinson	2006, 2009, 2010
Jason Richardson	2002, 2003
Harold Miner	1993, 1995
Dominique Wilkins	1985, 1990
Michael Jordan	1987, 1988

LaVine's multiple-overtime triumph over Aaron Gordon in 2016 remains the gold standard for modern dunk contests, reminiscent of Jordan and Wilkins' battle in 1988. 

Slam Dunk Contest trends

• Michael Jordan, Jason Richardson, Nate Robinson, and Zach LaVine are the only players in history to win the Slam Dunk Contest in back-to-back years. With a win, McClung would be the fifth.
  
  
• At age 18, Kobe Bryant is the youngest player to win the Slam Dunk Contest (1997).
  
  
• John Wall is the last player to make an All-Star team and win the Slam Dunk Contest in the same year (2014).

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