Spurs vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Wemby Gets the Defense Locked In

The Miami Heat will play host to Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs tonight, with the Rookie of the Year favorite making his first trip to South Beach — and I have you covered with my best bet using the latest NBA odds

The Spurs will no doubt have a rest advantage over the Heat as San Antonio last played on Saturday against the Cavaliers, while the Heatles will be on the back end of a back-to-back after playing the Orlando Magic last night.

While the second night of a back-to-back could be an issue for Miami, it's the defense of Wembanyama that is driving this pick in my free NBA picks for the Spurs vs. Heat on February 7.

Spurs vs Heat odds

Spurs vs Heat predictions

I highlighted the rest advantage for the San Antonio Spurs in the introduction, but as Joe Osborne always says on Before You Bet, you know who also knows these teams are on a back-to-back? The sportsbooks. 

I'm not going to play the "tired legs" narrative or something like that for this bet. It really has nothing to do with the Miami Heat playing last night, and everything to do with the presence of Victor Wembanyama in the paint.

The last time these two met on November 12, the Heat scored 118 points, and Bam Adebayo was one of the leading scorers for the Heat with 24 points.

The difference between their previous matchup and tonight's is the first game took place when Zach Collins was the starting center and Wembanyama was playing power forward. Adebayo had an easy time getting his mid-range jumper off over Collins, but shooting over Wemby will be a whole other story.

Not only is Wembanyama the starting center and will draw the defensive assignment on Adebayo, but the San Antonio also inserted Tre Jones into the starting lineup, who is another plus defender. Jones is someone who should match up well with Terry Rozier and be able to disrupt his game off the bounce.

With the Spurs possessing two defenders in the starting lineup who I think can be disruptive to Adebayo and Rozier, I really like the Heat to go Under their team total. There's also the possibility the Heat starters get less minutes since they played last night.

Miami is projected to score 114.4 points on Wednesday, so with the Under 114.5 trading at +105 at DraftKings, we have a nice edge with this alternate team total.

My best bet: Heat alternate team total Under 114.5 (+105 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Heat same-game parlay

Heat team total Under 114.5

Under 224

Spurs +7.5

+246 at DraftKings

I think the 224 total is slightly too high, and DraftKings is a little off-market here with other sportsbooks trading this total at 223.5. While I like the total for the game to go Under 224, and you're getting a good number here at DraftKings, it's more about the matchup between the Spurs' defense and the Heat's offense which has me leaning towards the Under on the game total.

A low-scoring game benefits the Spurs, and I think they'll be able to contain Miami just enough to stay competitive or, more importantly, keep it within 7.5 points.

I also like the idea of jumping out and taking the Spurs at +7.5 early because there is a chance we see some Heat players rest on the B2B, which will move this line toward San Antonio and probably drop the total as well.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

FanDuel opened the Heat as 8-point favorites, and this number is off-market relative to the rest of the sportsbooks as they're the only sportsbook trading at that number. If you're looking to back the Spurs on the side, take your action to FanDuel.

DraftKings opened the total at 224, and similar to FanDuel with the spread, they're also off-market with this line as well. The consensus number for the total is 223.5, and DraftKings is the only sportsbook trading this total at 224.

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Spurs vs Heat betting trend to know

The San Antonio Spurs have hit the first quarter moneyline in 35 of their last 72 games (+16.55 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Heat.

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