Spurs vs Knicks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Robinson Holds Court

The Victor Wembanyama show is taking its act to Madison Square Garden tonight. The San Antonio Spurs rookie is the NBA odds favorite to win Rookie of the Year and has been wowing fans with his combination of size and skill in every game this season, but he faces a stiff challenge against a bruising, physical New York Knicks squad.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Spurs vs. Knicks spotlight Mitchell Robinson’s historic rebounding season and why it is likely to continue.

If you're looking to bet on a certain other big man in this matchup, you can also check out our Victor Wembanyama player prop picks! 

Spurs vs Knicks odds

Spurs vs Knicks predictions

The New York Knicks are confounding. They have an All-NBA player who can’t hit a layup and their offense, which carried them into the second round of last year's playoffs, can’t get out of its own way. Most of the roster has played erratically so far.

Except one.

Mitchell Robinson, the longest-tenured member of the team, has been consistently excellent. Robinson is not a flashy player, and his free-throw form might make you wince, but that should take nothing away from how truly special a player he has become.

Robinson might have an understated presence in the analysis of the NBA and even among his own team, but he is a game-changer on the boards with an offensive rebounding rate of 20.9% this season. 

While the year still is in the early stages, Dennis Rodman holds the record for a single-season offensive rebounding rate at 20.8%. In other words, Robinson is currently (if slightly) on pace for the best offensive rebounding season of all time.

The Knicks were one of the best offenses in the NBA last season largely due to Robinson’s work on the glass. While he rarely scores in double figures, he is a one-man wrecking crew on the boards. 

Not only does he grab more than one in every five of the Knicks' misses, but he forces opposing teams to commit three or four bodies to him when a shot goes up. In turn, any offensive rebound he does snare turns into an easy kick out and a wide-open shot.

Once a perpetual risk to foul out before halftime, he has yet to be in serious foul trouble in any game this season. This is easily the best he has ever looked from a physical and mental perspective, and it’s showing out in his otherworldly production. Robinson is averaging 12.4 boards to start the season and has had 15 or more rebounds in four of his last five games. 

The San Antonio Spurs are the next interesting test. Unlike most teams, they start two bigs in the front court with Zach Collins next to rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama. In theory, that size should make them a strong rebounding outfit, but in practice, they’re middling at best. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Spurs are 15th and 23rd in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, respectively.

Not that a double big alignment has given Robinson much trouble in the past. He obliterated the Cleveland Cavaliers duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the glass in last year's playoff series, and he has clearly leveled up his game some since then.

It helps that the Knicks have been utterly inept from the field so far as well. With a 47.7% effective field goal percentage as a team (better than only the tanking Portland Trail Blazers), there are plenty of missed shots for Robinson to gobble up to hit this prop.

My best bet: Mitchell Robinson Over 10.5 rebounds (+104 at FanDuel)

Spurs vs Knicks same-game parlay

Mitchell Robinson Over 10.5 rebounds

Victor Wembanyama Over 19.5 points

RJ Barrett Over 1.5 made threes

50% boost available

+500 +750 at DraftKings

I’m a believer in Wembanyama’s scoring potential as well as RJ Barrett’s suddenly consistent jump shot to pair with my best bet on Robinson’s rebounding prop.

Wembanyama has showcased some incredible on-ball skills to begin his NBA career, but that’s not the primary reason I like his scoring prop for this parlay. Rather, it’s his matchup. Robinson has many virtues as a defender, but the player type that consistently gives him trouble are the unicorns like Wemby — the truly elite shooting big men of the NBA. 

For that reason, I think there’s a good chance that Julius Randle, not Robinson, gets the Wemby assignment. That works in his favor in a different way.

So much of what makes Wemby effective is his willingness and ability to use his size and athletic gifts to his advantage. He runs hard to the rim, leaks out in transition, and works for position to score around the hoop. 

Randle’s attention to detail on the defensive end — and his transition defense in particular — has been abysmal this year. Wemby stands a good chance of getting to this number simply by outhustling Randle, even if his jumper isn’t falling.

In Barrett’s case, his three-ball has been money. RJ is now shooting 44% from downtown on five attempts per game and is showing real signs of improvement. The best indicator is that he’s taking better shots. 

Nearly all of RJ’s threes this season have come off assists, and he’s cut down on any real diet of pull-up or off-the-dribble threes in favor of setting his feet and taking the easy ones.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spurs vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for Wednesday’s tilt is hovering between -8.5 and -9.5 in favor of the Knicks, with it settling at most oddsmakers at -9.5 at the time of writing.

These teams have both been inconsistent to open the season, with the Spurs pairing multiple horrible blowouts with two impressive wins over the Phoenix Suns. The Knicks have put together a solid defensive formula early, but their offense is very much a night-to-night adventure. The Knicks are 3-1 against the spread on the road, but 1-1-1 at MSG. 

San Antonio is underperforming the spread by an average of 5.7 points per game, but so much of that is due to the two crushing losses they suffered to the Indiana Pacers and the Los Angeles Clippers. Outside of those two games, they’ve been competitive.

The total has come in on the low end, and it's available anywhere between 224.5 and 223 depending on the sportsbook.

The Knicks defense appears to be legit. That’s largely due to incredible play by their centers in Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein, as well as renewed commitment on that end by Jalen Brunson and Barrett. They have the goods to match up with the Spurs' wings and guards on the perimeter to go with elite defensive rebounding and rim protection.

Stretch fives have been somewhat of an Achilles heel for the Knicks but as I expect Randle to take the Wembanyama matchup, that shouldn’t totally undermine the Knicks defense. 

But as solid as the Knicks defense looks, their offense looks nearly as shaky. They have only scored 110 points more twice this season (and one of those instances it was 111). The combination of defensive fortitude and offensive futility has seen the Under cash in six of their seven games this season. The Spurs are just the opposite, however, with the Over going 6-1 in their opening slate.

Spurs vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Knicks last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Knicks.

Spurs vs Knicks game info

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