The Los Angeles Clippers undoubtedly enjoyed routing the Phoenix Suns last night. There is no way to not relish a 37-10 first quarter. But now, Los Angeles may as well not be playing tonight. The Clippers’ injury report on Wednesday afternoon ruled out Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden while also designating Russell Westbrook and Ivica Zubac as questionable.
Logic doubts those latter two will play, but that may simply be skepticism. Regardless, Los Angeles is clearly punting tonight, while the game is a must-win for Phoenix. Let’s take advantage of these differing motivations in our free NBA picks as we dig into Suns vs. Clippers predictions, tip on Wednesday, April 10, at 10:30 ET.
Suns vs Clippers predictions
My best bet
Suns alternate first-half spread -7.5 (+134 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Let’s work this out logically. Last night, the Los Angeles Clippers were a 9.5-point road underdog, playing without Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Comedy ensued, and if we are not careful, this entire handicap will turn into a roast of the Phoenix Suns.
This absurd back-to-back has the same two teams meeting in the other home venue. That fact alone would normally swing a spread by four or five points. In the interest of making this a conservative approach, let’s say five points. By that thinking, the Clippers should be 4.5-point home underdogs tonight.
But the absence of Paul George changes that number, obviously. As do the possible absences of Russell Westbrook and Ivica Zubac. To that latter pair, some will suggest Los Angeles intends to see how the Mavericks vs. Heat game pans out earlier in the night. That is unnecessary. The Clippers are two games ahead of the Mavs in the standings and own their head-to-head tiebreaker. Los Angeles would need to go 0-3 to finish the season while Dallas goes 3-0 to lose home-court advantage in that first-round matchup.
The Clippers face two tanking teams this weekend. They can rest everyone tonight and have confidence they will avoid a 0-3 ending to the season.
So, if George is out and Westbrook and Zubac seem unlikely, is a three-point difference from what this spread should be, +4.5, and what it is, +7.5, enough? Perhaps it is on paper. Ascribe just less than two points to George and the rest to the combination of Westbrook and Zubac. But when so much of a lineup is out, the impact of their absences is exponential.
And thus, no, favoring Phoenix by 7.5 is not enough.
The worry in attacking that line is that the Suns may ease up if winning by plenty, and the fourth quarter could see some garbage-time buckets shrinking the margin of victory. Focusing on the first-half spread avoids that worry.
And if thinking this spread is set aggressively low, then an alternate line is the chance at our best value, but not one more than a bucket above the set first-half number of Suns -4.5.
Suns vs Clippers same-game parlay
Suns -5 — First Half
Clipper team total Under 54.5 — First Half
Grayson Allen Over 14.5 points
50% boost available
Most sportsbooks will not include an alternate spread in a same-game parlay, so this approach needs to be dialed back a touch. Nonetheless, Phoenix should be looking to redeem themselves after last night’s laugher and do so early. The Suns scored just 10 first-quarter points last night and 33 in the first half. They will not stymie the Clippers as badly, but some vengeance should be served.
Backing Grayson Allen’s points prop is a bet that he will play longer than Phoenix’s biggest stars will in a possible blowout. A prop at 14.5 is a touch high on Allen, given he has scored at least 15 points in just one of his last nine games, but it comes with value and a blowout would boost his usage rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Suns vs Clippers odds
Suns vs Clippers live odds
Suns vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -3 | Los Angeles +3
- Moneyline: Phoenix -147 | Los Angeles +132
- Over/Under: Over 226 | Under 226
Suns vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened as low as -3, favoring Phoenix, as Tuesday became Wednesday. It did not start to jump until midmorning, when the first bettors began to surmise Los Angeles, may rest its stars. Even that number, though, was a bit aggressive based on last night’s pregame spread, further suggesting the spreads as posted are too low.
- The total fell with the official news of George’s absence, opening last night at 226.5 and dropping to 223 upon release of the Clippers’ injury report.
- Phoenix is 6-3 against the spread as a multi-score favorite since March 15.
Suns vs Clippers trend
The Under has cashed in seven of the nine games in which the Suns have been multi-score favorites since March 15. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Clippers.
Suns vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSC, AZFamily |
Suns vs Clippers latest injuries
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