Two of the top teams in the Western Conference clash on Friday night with the Phoenix Suns facing off against the Sacramento Kings. Both teams enter this content on a two-game skid, and will look to get back in the win column as they jockey for playoff positioning.
NBA odds opened with the Kings as 3.5-point home favorites, with the Over/Under at a whopping 239. Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs Kings on March 24.
Suns vs Kings best odds
Suns vs Kings picks and predictions
It's tough to use the Phoenix Suns' season-long metrics to project future performance since their lineup has been in constant flux due to injuries. But it's clear that they've taken a step back from last year's team, and regression on defense and poor bench play have been major factors.
That lack of depth is even more exposed at the moment due to the absence of Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton.
Durant is one of the most efficient high-volume scorers in NBA history, and is averaging 29.5 points per game on 57/39/93 shooting splits this season. Ayton is the team's only true starting caliber big man, and puts up 18.3 ppg on 58.9 FG% while adding 10.1 rebounds per game.
The Suns have dropped five of their last six games, and have gone 0-6 ATS during that span. They haven't looked good on the road all season, going 15-22, and now travel to Sacramento to face a Kings squad that is 11-4 since the All-Star break.
Without the firepower of KD and Ayton, it will be very tough for Phoenix to keep up with the explosive scoring ability of a Sacramento team that pushes the pace and leads the NBA with 123.8 ppg at home.
My best bet: Kings -3.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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Suns vs Kings spread analysis
The Kings are in third place in the Western Conference standings with a 43-29 record. With just 10 games left in the regular season, they have a comfortable five-game lead on the fourth-place Suns.
Sacramento is coming off an ugly 23-point defeat at home to the Celtics on Tuesday after losing on the road in Utah on Monday. The Kings have still looked very impressive over the last few months, going 23-11 straight up (19-14-1 against the spread) with a net rating of +3.9 in their previous 34 games.
The Kings have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season thanks to boasting the top offensive rating in the league (118.6). Sacramento is anchored by center Domantas Sabonis, who leads the team with 12.5 rebounds and 7.3 assists while adding 19.0 ppg. Point guard De'Aaron Fox is the top scorer with 25.4 ppg, and also dishes out 6.1 apg.
Just when it looked like the Suns were back to being a championship-caliber team, they lost Durant to an ankle injury at the start of the month and won't get him back until April. Ayton has missed the last two games with a hip injury, and won't be back until Monday at the earliest.
With Durant and Ayton sidelined, the scoring burden falls on Devin Booker (28.1 ppg), while Chris Paul (13.6 ppg, 9.1 apg) will need to look for his own shot more often.
Suns vs Kings Over/Under analysis
The Kings play at a blazing-fast pace, with their average length of possession after made shots (16.0 seconds) and defensive rebounds (10.3 seconds) leading the league. That has led to Sacramento pacing the NBA with 120.9 ppg, but also ranking 28th in scoring defense with 118.5 ppg allowed.
As much as the Kings have improved on offense this season, they continue to be one of the worst teams in the league at defending. They are 25th in the league in opponent 2-point percentage (56.6%), while ranking 28th in opponent 3-point percentage (37.4%). The Kings also rank 26th in defensive rating (116.3).
Even with massive totals put in front of them by oddsmakers, Sacramento continues to cash the Over, going 15-5-1 O/U in its last 21 games.
Despite missing the scoring of Durant and Ayton, the Suns might be able to keep up their end of the bargain when it comes to eclipsing the total. The Over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games despite Durant sitting out eight of those contests.
Keep in mind that Durant and Ayton are also above-average defenders and really help out on the defensive glass.
Suns vs Kings betting trend to know
The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Kings.
Suns vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Friday, March 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Arizona, NBCS-California |
