Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Over Could Go Mile-High

The second round of the 2023 NBA playoffs tips off on Saturday, April 29 with perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the entire season between the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets. And the contrast between the two Western Conference teams could hardly be more stark.

The Nuggets, buoyed by back-to-back defending NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, have a core group that has played together for years. Meanwhile, the Suns blew up their roster at the trade deadline to add Kevin Durant, and while they have overwhelming talent, they’re still learning to play with one another, even as they close to within 12 wins of an NBA title.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Suns vs. Nuggets expect an offensive explosion that plays in Denver’s favor.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 best odds

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 picks and predictions

This series should have it all. Both the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have incredible top-end talent and otherworldly offenses. The Nuggets trio of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. averaged 127 points per 100 possessions this season, a 99th percentile mark among all NBA lineups per Cleaning the Glass. While the data is limited on the Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Chris Paul group, their individual scoring talent alone is enough to melt even the strongest defensive units.

And yet the Total for Saturday’s game has come in at a relatively modest 226.5, so I’m going with the Over and parlaying it with the Nuggets moneyline to maximize expected value, as I believe a few structural advantages are going to give Denver a leg up in Game 1.

The key to Game 1, and perhaps the entire series, is whether Deandre Ayton can guard Jokic one on one. Ayton did an admirable job defending Joker in the 2021 series, but typically after an opponent plays him well a few times, Jokic figures them out and proceeds to routinely dominate them. In the meetings since the 2021 playoffs, Jokic has regularly abused Ayton on the block, facing up, and on the boards.

Jokic also has a supporting cast this time around, which should make Ayton’s job much more difficult. Jokic and Murray are second only to Steph Curry and Draymond Green in two-man-game chemistry, and like the Warriors, they require a coordinated team effort to defend.  

It’s unclear if the Suns can get to that necessary level of coordination. Many times in the Clippers series, the Suns stood pointing or bumbling through plays as they were still learning to play with one another. Those kinds of miscues didn’t cost them against a team missing both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, but against Denver, they spell instant death.

The Suns present their own serious problems for the Nuggets' defense mind you, and putting Jokic in high pick-and-roll and attacking him in space is sure to be part of their opening salvo on Saturday. That simple action frustrated and ultimately demoralized the Nuggets two years ago, but they have significantly improved their wing and guard rotation since that time. They’re not so good as to make it an inefficient action overall, but in a series to be won on the margins, they should be good enough.

Then there’s the so-called math problem innate to Phoenix’s lineup. In contrast to every other good NBA offense, they generate a huge amount of their shots from the midrange and few from three or at the rim. A startling 53.4% of Phoenix’s shots came from the midrange in Round 1 against L.A. and yet they had a 127 offensive rating per Cleaning the Glass. Durant, Booker, and Paul are among the best to ever do it from that range, but I remain skeptical that they can sustain quite that level of offense against Denver.

Because related to the math problem is Denver’s notorious homecourt advantage. The Suns are a perilously thin team, with Durant and Booker playing in the mid to high forties in every game of the first round. Even in a vacuum, that gets harder to do round by round, but at elevation it might prove impossible. When legs get heavy, jump shots fall short, and it becomes imperative to generate easier looks. The Suns have little practice or interest in doing so.

The Suns are a dynamite offense, but they showed enough cracks in the facade in round one that I believe the Nuggets' superior continuity, Jokic’s ability to dominate his matchup, and their superlative homecourt advantage should see them win on Saturday in a high-scoring affair.

My best bet: Nuggets Moneyline and Over 226.5 (+220 at betway)

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 spread analysis

While this series is technically a rematch of 2021, when the Suns swept the Nuggets out of the playoffs, these teams only vaguely resemble those previous versions. Jokic is no longer a one-man band and has hard-nosed guards capable of shooting, passing, and getting over screens around him. Flooding Jokic to help Ayton will prove as untenable as letting him work one on one, as Jokic is the best passer in the Association.

The Nuggets' homecourt advantage is also monstrous. They were a sterling 28-16 against the spread at home this season, and 4-1 ATS in their last five.

The worry for Phoenix is that despite their 12-1 record with Durant, this Suns team has virtually no experience against truly elite competition. They looked surprisingly shaky at times against a heavily-depleted Clippers team and may well have been a threat to lose the series if just one of Kawhi Leonard or Paul George had been healthy. Phoenix’s record against quality teams recently is not inspiring either, as they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

There are just more places where it seems that things could break down for Phoenix. Denver could beat them on the boards, Ayton could get into early foul trouble, Jokic could use their inexperience playing together to pick them apart with his passing, and Paul could be targeted by Murray on defense. Not to say that the Suns don’t have their own set of advantages, I just think early on Denver’s are going to matter just a bit more.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 1 Over/Under analysis

The Minnesota Timberwolves had much better defensive personnel to hang with Jokic than the Suns do. 

While Ayton might have success in bursts, he’s simply not the level of impact team defender that Rudy Gobert is. He’s not as defensively skilled, nor as long and strong as Gobert, but most importantly his effort and interest can be inconsistent. Ayton has seen his offensive touches plummet with the addition of Durant, and it’s fair to wonder if his willingness to do the little things on defense might flag as that continues. If it does, the Suns have no chance of stopping Denver’s offense. Murray presents if not an equal problem, then one just as able to blow up Phoenix’s base defensive plans.

But as bullish as I am on the Nuggets' offense, I’m only slightly less confident in the Suns’. The Suns’ ability to turn middling shots into great ones on pure talent makes them a nightmare for any team to defend, but one with a lumbering center who could potentially be caught in no man’s land over and over when attacked in pick-and-roll is particularly susceptible.

The Nuggets have a bevy of perimeter defenders now that (if you squint hard enough) can defend KD and Booker, but they might also just prove to be overmatched immediately. If the Nuggets have to start putting two on the ball regularly, Phoenix will feast. Both these teams have seen a series of recent Overs, with it going 6-1-1 in the Suns’ last eight games, and 3-0-1 in Denver’s last four.

Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know

Over is 6-1-1 in Suns’ last eight overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

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