The New Orleans Pelicans couldn't capitalize on a great opportunity to take a 2-1 series lead against the heavily favored Phoenix Suns on Friday.
Instead, they are desperate to get a win at home tonight in Game 4 to tie this series and keep their hopes alive of pulling off only the fifth ever win by a No. 8 seed in the NBA playoffs. This will obviously be easier said than done as they try to contain the Point God himself, Chris Paul.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Suns at the Pelicans on April 24, with tip set for 9:30 ET.
Suns vs Pelicans odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
After the Suns held on to win Friday night, they opened early Saturday morning as 3-point favorites for Game 4. Some books dropped that to -2.5, but it remained steady into Saturday afternoon before falling to -2.0 midday Sunday. The total opened at 217.5 but has fallen to 215 by this writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Suns vs Pelicans predictions
Predictions made on 4/24/2022 at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Suns vs Pelicans game info
• Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Suns vs Pelicans series odds
Suns: -750.
Pelicans: +500.
Suns vs Pelicans betting preview
Key injuries
Suns: Devin Booker SG (Out), Dario Saric SF (Out).
Pelicans: Zion Williamson PF (Out), Kira Lewis Jr. PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Pelicans’ last four home games as an underdog, all coming since early March, including both Game 3 and the March 15 matchup with the Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Pelicans.
Suns vs Pelicans picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Suns are plenty good without Devin Booker, but they are not anywhere near the best team in the league with the dynamic shooting guard out of the lineup. Friday night reaffirmed a trend that persisted all season even as Phoenix held on for that win.
The Suns went 56-12 with Booker active. Without him, they went just 8-6. With Booker, Phoenix enjoyed an offensive rating of 116.8, per statmuse.com, but without him, that fell to 109.7. To put those numbers in more stark terms, the Suns averaged seven fewer points per game without their star.
That offensive rating with Booker would have ranked No. 1 in the league in the regular season. That rating without him would have fit at 26th, just ahead of the Houston Rockets and behind the Sacramento Kings.
Yes, Phoenix held on in Game 3, but only thanks to Chris Paul’s brilliance (28 points, 14 assists) and Deandre Ayton’s impressive double-double. As good as they both are, carrying that load again will not only be difficult, but it also might not be enough.
The Pelicans played a merely average game on Friday. There is a temptation to knock their 34.4% shooting from deep but that fits right in line with their average both this season and since the All-Star break. Additionally, critiquing their 14 turnovers would be an easy handicap, but New Orleans averaged 12.6 turnovers per game in the final weeks of the season.
Instead, the bet becomes that the Pelicans will play a bit better than average with their backs against the wall. Using the home crowd to tie this series at 2-2 will be vital if New Orleans has any dreams of pulling off this upset. That urgency should overcome those middling numbers, and it also may stymie Paul’s and Ayton’s Game 3 trends.
Prediction: Pelicans +2.5 (-108 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
CJ McCollum averaged 22.9 points in 19 games in March and April before the postseason, shooting 47.9% from the field and 37.8% from deep. Brandon Ingram added 25.8 points on 53.4% shooting. McCollum’s overall shooting is down to 40.9% in this series, but otherwise, both have improved on those numbers.
If that success continues, and there is every reason to think it will, this suppressed total leaves a clear path to an Over.
Phoenix has enough scorers to still put up points without Booker. Note: Mikal Bridges scored 17 on Friday, even as Cam Johnson notched only eight. Someone will continue to propel the Suns, though it is hard to imagine JaVale McGee scoring 15 once again.
As long as the Suns offense doesn't completely collapse, the Pelicans backcourt should provide enough firepower to push this Over.
Prediction: Over 214.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Phoenix needed to win Friday to avoid falling behind with Booker’s return too distant to provide hope. Tonight, New Orleans needs to win to tie this series up before Booker does return.
That motivation alone makes the moneyline the play tonight. The Suns can breathe a sigh of relief. The Pelicans cannot.
Picking this upset relies on McCollum and Ingram, but they have both shown there is no slowing them at the moment. And while Phoenix has to rely on the likes of Bridges and Johnson in Booker’s absence, New Orleans gets to enjoy contributions from Herb Jones and Devonte’ Graham, both of whom potted 12 points on Friday.
By no means are the Pelicans the better team, but they are competitive enough against the Booker-less Suns to make tonight interesting, and when readying to watch “interesting,” take the positive odds.
Pick: Pelicans moneyline (+115 at Caesars)
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