The Phoenix Suns took a seven-game winning streak into the All-Star break and the team will now look to come storming out of the gates with a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. While Chris Paul is out indefinitely for the Suns, the Thunder are expected to be getting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back here.
Will the return of Oklahoma City’s star be enough to keep things close against a Phoenix team that is excellent on both ends of the floor? Keep reading our Suns vs. Thunder NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, February 24 to find out.
Suns vs Thunder odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Suns opened as 10-point favorites over the Thunder, but the line started to creep down once Gilgeous-Alexander was upgraded to probable. The total, which opened at 213, is now up around 215 across all sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Suns vs Thunder predictions
Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Suns vs Thunder game info
• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Oklahoma, Bally Sports Arizona
Suns vs Thunder betting preview
Key injuries
Suns: Cam Payne G (Out), Chris Paul G (Out), Frank Kaminsky C (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G (Probable), Luguentz Dort G (Questionable), Ty Jerome G (Questionable), Kenrich Williams F (Questionable), Mike Muscala F (Out), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Thunder are 8-2-3 against the spread in their last 13 games against teams with winning records. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Thunder.
Suns vs Thunder picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Suns were scorching hot heading into the All-Star break, but they likely won’t click the second they get on the floor after a week off. They will also have to start winning games without Paul, who is likely going to miss the rest of the regular season. That puts a lot of pressure on Devin Booker, who will now likely operate as Phoenix’s lead guard. The Suns are a very well-rounded team, so they should continue to win games at a decent clip without their floor general. However, it might not be fair to expect them to blow teams out on the road right away.
The Thunder have also been one of the best defensive teams in the league since the start of 2022, and they’re now adding Gilgeous-Alexander back into the mix. That’s going to help boost a Thunder offense that already has one tremendous ball-handler in Josh Giddey. That backcourt is going to be a tough one for Phoenix to have to face in its first game without Paul, and the energy in the arena should be pretty good with Oklahoma City getting the face of the franchise back.
The Thunder are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games, so this is already a team that is staying competitive — even if people want to joke that Oklahoma City is constantly tanking for better draft picks. Look for them to hang around in this meeting with the Suns, even if they don’t ultimately pick up a win.
Prediction: Thunder +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
While Paul’s ability to run the show is huge for Phoenix’s offense, the team is going to miss him on the defensive end in this game. Paul is still a really impactful defender on the perimeter, and it’s going to be tough on Phoenix to stop a very good Oklahoma City backcourt without him. Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be really aggressive as a scorer in this game, and Giddey’s ability to find open players will have the Suns scrambling. That means that the Thunder should put up a decent number, which would be huge for Over bettors considering the Suns can always be trusted to execute offensively.
Since the start of last season, the Over is 10-0 when Phoenix plays against teams that are outscored by at least 3.0 points per game in the second half of the year. The average total points scored in those games is a ridiculous 242.8 points per game. The Over is also 6-2 in the last eight home games that Oklahoma City has played against teams with winning road records.
Prediction: Over 214.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Thunder are 25-11-2 ATS when facing teams that average at least 23.0 assists per game this season, and they’re also 16-6-2 ATS against teams that make at least 46.0% of their shots. The Thunder take advantage of teams that underestimate them, and Oklahoma City is especially feisty on the defensive end. The Thunder are going to go out there and work extremely hard, even if they might not have the same talent as other teams.
Oklahoma City also happens to be catching Phoenix at the right time, as it’s not used to playing without Paul. This number just seems far too big with so much uncertainty surrounding the Suns.
Pick: Thunder +9.5 (-110)
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