Suns vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Gobert Stands Tall Against Shorthanded Phoenix

Despite picking up an unlikely win against defending champion Golden State on Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns snapped back to reality in a 29-point blowout loss against the Denver Nuggets the following night.

They will continue their four-game road trip against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who recently had their four-game win streak snapped. 

I'm expecting a better effort from Minnesota tonight, against a beaten-up Suns squad potentially missing its three most important players, and my best free NBA picks for tonight are keying in on a Timberwolves big man to exploit that opportunity.

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Suns vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

This offseason, the Minnesota Timberwolves made one of the most aggressive free-agency moves in recent history, acquiring Rudy Gobert in exchange for five players, four first-round picks, and a first-round pick swap. 

It’s taken time for the three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner to adjust to his new team, as pairing with fellow big man Karl Anthony-Towns hasn’t exactly mixed well so far.

Towns, however, suffered a calf strain on November 28 and hasn’t played since, and Gobert’s offensive production has increased since then including a season-best 25-point, 21-rebound effort in a win last Friday. Gobert does most of his work inside the paint and is averaging the second-highest field-goal percentage in the NBA at 67.7%.

He’ll be getting to go against Phoenix Suns backup Bismack Biyombo — or a hobbled Deandre Ayton, if the Suns' primary center decides to give it a go. 

Phoenix’s defense has suffered without its primary rim protector, giving up 125 and 126 points in its last two outings, and overall the Suns' interior defense struggles, ranking in the bottom third of the league by allowing opponents to shoot 64.4% within five feet.

In his last matchup against Phoenix on November 9, against a healthy Ayton and with "KAT" in the lineup, Gobert dominated the paint, scoring 25 points to go along with 11 boards. With an easier matchup tonight and no Towns to clog up his preferred area of operations, I'm expecting another big night from Minny's remaining big man.

My best bet: Rudy Gobert Over 29.5 points + rebounds (-110)

Suns vs Timberwolves spread analysis

Tonight Suns vs. Timberwolves line opened up at 2.5 in favor of the home side and has since jumped as high as 5.5.

Outside of the Towns injury, Anthony Edwards is questionable while dealing with a nagging hip — but the T-Wolves are at full strength otherwise and have covered the spread in four of their last five games. 

However, for every long winning streak the team goes on, a losing streak seems to be lurking around the corner as multiple times this season, Minnesota has gone on multi-game winning stretches, which were immediately followed up by multi-game losing skids. 

Phoenix started the year off hot, but now sits at No. 7 in the West and is searching for answers without Paul and Booker, who suffered a groin injury on Christmas day, prompting the Suns to go 2-7 in his absence.

Suns vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

The total for this game opened at 225 but has dropped to 223. The T-Wolves rank 12th in the NBA in scoring 114.8 PPG, with Towns and Edwards as the team's two leading scorers, accounting for 38.7% of the team's offense.

Guys like Gobert and D'Angelo Russell will need to be catalysts in uplifting Minnesota’s offense tonight, especially depending on how much Edwards can go: After the recent loss in Detroit, a dejected Edwards alluded to his injury stating, "I guess I got to just play every game from here on out no matter how it feels. I’ll figure it out." 

The 21-year-old phenom is the glue behind the T-Wolves offense. He’s listed as day-to-day but after Wednesday night's comments, it seems he’ll try to play through the pain. 

Before the Booker injury, the Suns were scoring 115.7 ppg, which would currently rank 10th in the NBA, but in the nine games since he got hurt, the team's offense has tanked, averaging 102 points nightly.

Suns vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the Suns' last seven games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.

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