The Memphis Grizzlies must strive to hold onto their lofty standing in the Western Conference without Jaren Jackson Jr. for at least a week. Given Jackson’s all-around contributions this season, that will be easier said than done.
And it will get off to a difficult start tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Western Conference leaders are seen as a powerhouse on the scoreboard, rightfully so, yet somehow underappreciated in the gambling ledger.
My Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions will not make that mistake. Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, March 4.
Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Thunder -8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
A personal betting axiom that has been proven true over the years is to “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” That logic would argue for betting on the Memphis Grizzlies tonight without Jaren Jackson Jr.
The thought process is rather simple. The public will overreact to most injuries, discounting the value of the players on the bench, and lines will move further than they should as a result. Consistently playing contrary to that is a profitable approach.
Ignoring this axiom must be justified. First, let’s figure out how far the line has moved as a result of Jackson’s injury. Within the last week, both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Grizzlies have played the Hawks. Oklahoma City was a 10.5-point road favorite, while Memphis was eight-point home chalk. Adjusting for homecourt, that suggests about a seven-point difference between these two.
With the Grizzlies at home tonight, the spread should then arguably be around +5, not +8.
Is Jackson worth three points? Few players in the NBA are.
Instinct says no, but Jackson is certainly worth more than recognized. First of all, he ranks third in Memphis’s rotation in usage rate at 28.6%, as much a perimeter player as a post player on offense. He also leads the Grizzlies in points at 22.7 per game (Ja Morant is next at 20.9) while shooting a solid 36.5% from deep.
Jaren was injured two minutes into Monday’s loss against the Hawks. In his absence, GG Jackson played 28 minutes. For context, he played fewer than 24 minutes combined in the four previous games.
The best measure of the impact of Jaren Jackson Jr.’s absence is the difference between his production on both ends of the court compared to GG Jackson’s. Suffice it to say, three points is too small of an adjustment, and that is meant more as a compliment to Jaren Jackson Jr. than it is an insult to GG Jackson.
Thunder vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Thunder -8
Over 252.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points
Both these teams trend toward Overs, with Oklahoma City 34-26 O/U in 60 games (setting aside two pushes), while Memphis has cashed 37 Overs in 59 games (again ignoring two pushes). Seven straight Thunder games have eclipsed their totals, just as four of the Grizzlies’s last five games have.
Losing Jaren Jackson Jr. should help the overall scoring output, as he and Evan Mobley are neck-and-neck for DPOY honors for a reason. And even a total as high as 252.5 should not scare off too quickly, given the Grizzlies went Over a total of 250.5 against the Hawks on Monday.
If anyone is going to most capitalize on Jackson’s absence, it should be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Frankly, SGA should put Zach Edey in foul trouble in the first half.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Grizzlies score prediction
Thunder 138, Grizzlies 127
Two straight opponents have scored 130+ against Memphis, and four of its last five foes have reached at least 129.
Thunder vs Grizzlies odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies live odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -7.5 | Memphis +7.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -300 | Memphis +240
- Over/Under: Over 247.5 | Under 247.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City opened as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday evening, after Jackson’s absence was already known, and peaked at -9 early on Wednesday.
- As Wednesday reached the lunch hour, this spread ticked down to -8, with some books even briefly considering -7.
- Look at that +9 as perhaps the appropriate spot of “Buy on bad news,” while -8 reflects a truer line, albeit one that undervalues Jackson.
- This total opened at 247.5 and quickly climbed to 250, a reflection of general opinions of Memphis, before climbing to 252.5 early on Wednesday afternoon.
Thunder vs Grizzlies trend
Memphis is 0-7-1 against the spread in its last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Thunder vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Grizzlies latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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