The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to build on a two-game winning streak as they visit the Miami Heat on Tuesday night.
The Thunder have been playing well behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 30.9 points per game this season. He’ll try to continue his scoring barrage against a Miami team that is in the midst of the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the best scorers in the league this year, but he’ll be facing off against a tough Miami defense tonight. We’ll look at how that will impact his numbers in our NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Heat on January 10.
Thunder vs Heat best odds
Thunder vs Heat picks and predictions
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had already developed into a capable scorer before this season but the 24-year-old is enjoying a breakout year and is now fourth in the league in scoring. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting over 50% from the field and is adding plenty of points from the free-throw line, where he’s shooting 91.1%.
That hasn’t translated into much success for Oklahoma City just yet. The Thunder have won two straight, but are still just 18-22 on the year, and are currently 1.5 games outside of the Western Conference playoff picture.
Gilgeous-Alexander is doing what he can to change that. He has scored 30 or more points in each of his last three games and led the Thunder to a win over the Mavericks on Sunday with a 33-point performance. Regardless of what Oklahoma City does this year, Gilgeous-Alexander is establishing himself as a star that can lead a team to wins.
That’s exactly the kind of player Miami has excelled at slowing down this season. The Heat are giving up just 109 points per game this season, the second-lowest mark in the NBA. Miami has found success in its slow-paced system, with Jimmy Butler (21.6 points per game), Bam Adebayo (21.4 ppg), and Tyler Herro (21.2 ppg) scoring just enough to lead the Heat to a 21-20 record on the year.
If you’re going to play that way, you can’t let opposing stars put up big games against you. The Heat have done a great job at containing big scorers all season long, and have been especially proficient at this in recent weeks. In their last eight games, only one player has scored 30 points against Miami: Lakers guard Dennis Schroder, who put up a surprising 32 again the Heat last Wednesday with LeBron James sitting.
Gilgeous-Alexander will probably lead the Thunder in scoring on Tuesday. The only question we have to answer is how many points he’ll score. Points will be at a premium against the Heat, and Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t scored more than 33 points in any of his last six games.
Oddsmakers still have a lot of confidence in the Oklahoma City star to light up the scoreboard. Most sites are setting his points scored prop at 30.5, a number that seems unrealistically high given the way the Heat play and the quality of their defense. I’m taking the Under on that prop, as Gilgeous-Alexander likely joins the long list of stars who can’t break out against Miami.
My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 points (-111)
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Thunder vs Heat spread analysis
The Heat opened as a 3.5-point favorite over the Thunder. As of noon on Tuesday, the most common line is Miami -2.5.
While Miami has the better record heading into tonight’s game, it’s not clear that it’s a better team than Oklahoma City. Both teams have a slightly negative point differential on the season, and while the Heat have far more depth, they don’t have a superlative star like Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Heat haven’t been great at home, going just 11-9 on the season at FTX Arena. Miami is also banged up heading into Tuesday’s game, with both Herro and Adebayo now out after being listed as questionable earlier.
Miami can still run its offense through Jimmy Butler, and they have capable backups like Max Strus and Dewayne Dedmon to fill out the lineup. Still, those injuries are enough for me to like the Thunder here. I’m happy to take Oklahoma City +2.5 without the juice that comes with some of the bigger numbers on the market.
Thunder vs Heat Over/Under analysis
The total on tonight’s game started at 224.5 but has been bet down since then. As of noon on Tuesday, the consensus Over/Under sits at 222.5.
This is a stylistic matchup that pits one of the fastest teams in the NBA (Oklahoma City) against one of the slowest (Miami). The Thunder regularly play to higher numbers, having gone above the 222.5 total in seven of their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Heat have played under that number in each of their last four.
Miami has done an excellent job of dictating the pace of play all season long. But keeping this game under 222.5 will be a challenge given the way Oklahoma City likes to run the court. That doesn’t mean the Heat will be drawn into a shootout — nobody has truly been able to do that all year long — but there should be a bit more scoring than in a typical Miami game.
I’ve already talked about how the Heat should be able to contain Gilgeous-Alexander. However, that doesn’t mean they have to hold the Thunder to under 100 points to do so, as they’ve contained opposing stars even in relatively high-scoring games this season. It’s not my favorite bet tonight, but I’m backing the Over in this game.
Thunder vs Heat betting trend to know
The Heat are 6-16-1 against the spread in their last 23 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Heat.
Thunder vs Heat game info
| Location: | FTX Arena, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
