Thunder vs Jazz Picks and Predictions: Markkanen Remains a Walking Double-Double

Two of the biggest surprise teams in the Western Conference will face one another tonight when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Utah Jazz. 

Not much was expected from the Thunder and Jazz this season, but both squads remain in the hunt for a play-in spot in the West and are separated by just a half-game in the standings.

I break down the matchup and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Jazz on February 23.

Thunder vs Jazz best odds

Thunder vs Jazz picks and predictions

Before this NBA season started, most people thought the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz would be frontrunners in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.

That’s certainly not the case anymore. 

A big part of that has been the play of  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lauri Markkanen. For tonight’s matchup, I’m focusing on the Jazz stretch four. 

Markkanen is the current betting favorite for Most Improved Player odds and is scoring 10.1 more points per game than he was a season ago. He is also putting up 24.9 points per contest to go along with 8.6 rebounds per game. 

It’s no surprise that he’s been recording double-doubles somewhat regularly, notching 22 for the season. Tonight’s matchup with the Thunder looks like a great spot for him to record yet another.

Part of what makes the Thunder so good is their effort on the defensive end, but they are undersized and it would be unlikely they would be the first team to hold Markkanen below 10 points for the first time all season.

Since Christmas, Markkanen has also upped his rebounds to 9.4 per game, and the Thunder rank just 26th in rebounding rate.

Additionally, OKC plays at a high pace and takes the most shots per game in the league while ranking 18th in effective field goal percentage. That means a lot of rebounds are up for grabs in Thunder games, and it's not shocking to see that OKC ranks next-to-last in opponent rebounds per game.

The better-than-even money makes the Markkanen double-double too good to pass up in this spot.

My best bet: Lauri Markkanen to record a double-double (+110)

Thunder vs Jazz spread analysis

The Jazz opened this matchup as 2.5-point home favorites, but the line has since jumped the fence and now it’s the Thunder who are laying one point on the road.

While both of these teams can run up and down the floor on offense, only the Thunder give an elevated effort on the other end of the floor. OKC is a scrappy team that ranks 11th in defensive rating and 10th in opponent field goal percentage.

That effort on defense — mixed with the play of Gilgeous-Alexander and the development of Josh Giddey — has made the Thunder a great team to back against the spread. In fact, they are the NBA’s best bet this season at 35-21-1 ATS.

With the Jazz also missing their third-highest scorer in Collin Sexton, I would lean toward the Thunder as slight favorites here.

Thunder vs Jazz Over/Under analysis

Prior to this season, I bet your first thought for this game wouldn’t be a shootout, but here we are with a sky-high total of 240 for a matchup of these two teams.

Gilgeous-Alexander powers the high-octane Thunder offense, averaging 30.8 ppg for an OKC team that scores the third-most point per game (117.9). 

Tonight, they face a Jazz team that will be more than happy to run with them. Utah ranks fifth in scoring at 117.6 points per game, but there are more than a few holes at the other end of the floor. The Jazz rank just 26th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponent field goal percentage.

It will be interesting to see how the flow of this game goes, but with the Thunder ranking third in pace, I would be looking at the Over or staying away from this high number.

Thunder vs Jazz betting trend to know

Oklahoma City is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Jazz.

Thunder vs Jazz game info

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