Just one week ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder were four-point home favorites against the New York Knicks, winning by 10. Now, Oklahoma City is a four-point road favorite in New York, effectively a five-point swing in the expectations given the homecourt advantage shift.
My Thunder vs. Knicks predictions do not think that shift is too much. Tip comes at 7:30 ET on Friday, January 10.
Thunder vs Knicks prediction
My best bet
Thunder -4 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
A five-point shift in the spread — again, shifting homecourt is worth about 2.5 points each way, so Oklahoma City to New York is roughly a five-point value — in just a week may seem absurd, but consider three facts.
First of all, the Oklahoma City Thunder were on the second half of a back-to-back when they hosted the New York Knicks, having beaten the Clippers just the night before. A back-to-back at home with no travel is not as drastic as many, but it is still worth a point or so in the spread.
Secondly, remember that Oklahoma City beat New York by 10, wiping the floor with the Knicks in the fourth quarter, 37-19. All five Knicks starters played at least 40 minutes, and that fatigue became clear against the Thunder’s length and suffocating defense. As that stymied New York, easy buckets became available for Oklahoma City.
Lastly, worry about Karl-Anthony Towns’ availability tonight. The perennial All-Star suffered a knee injury on Wednesday night, when Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau had him playing late in a blowout of the Raptors. Thibodeau simply cannot help himself, having designed a roster with few reliable players on the bench, all due respect to Landry Shamet and Precious Achiuwa.
Officially questionable, a Towns absence tonight could doom New York. The Knicks rely on his shotmaking and, increasingly, playmaking to keep the floor spread despite Mikal Bridges’ shooting struggles and Josh Hart’s usual habit of shooting only a few 3-pointers per game. Without Towns, Oklahoma City will have a bounty of defensive options.
And even if Towns is available but limited, the Thunder will have an array of options to close out as he does not attack as much.
Oklahoma City has already shown it can outlast New York. And that was when the Thunder were worn out. It will be only too eager to do so again tonight if the Knicks happen to be shorthanded this time.
Thunder vs Knicks same-game parlay
Thunder -4
Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 assists
To be clear, Towns may play tonight. But there is some doubt about it. And when he is sidelined, Jalen Brunson shoulders even more of the load, his scoring jumping across 30 in three games without KAT this season, compared to 24.5 in 34 games alongside the newest Knicks’ addition. Even if Towns plays, any reticence to drive will emphasize Brunson’s need to get into the lane.
Towns’s possible limitations would force him to distribute the ball more. His shooting alone will demand some defensive focus, but once closed out, any reticence to drive will mean he moves the ball.
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Thunder vs Knicks odds
Thunder vs Knicks live odds
Thunder vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -1.5 | New York +1.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -125 | New York +105
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line opened Thursday afternoon with Oklahoma City favored by just 1.5 points. That climbed to -3.5 before night’s end, a further indication that Towns may be sidelined.
- Friday morning toggled between -3.5 and -4 early before creeping to -4.5 during the lunch hour and settling at -4.
- The total opened at 225.5 and never moved much, bouncing to 225 and then returning throughout the day.
Thunder vs Knicks trend
While Oklahoma City’s 15-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday, it should still be remembered that those wins also included a 13-1-1 run against the spread, exceeding expectations by an average of 7.3 points, even including the sole ATS loss as well as the push. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Knicks.
How to watch Thunder vs Knicks
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, New York |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN OK, MSG, TSN |
Thunder vs Knicks latest injuries
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