Do not start believing in the Portland Trail Blazers simply because they enjoy a four-game winning streak. Certainly do not believe in them against the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.
However, a 14-point spread is always lofty in the malaise of January basketball, the world’s attention more on the NFL Playoffs as the NBA attempts to steamroll into the All-Star break.
With that in mind, my Thunder vs. Trail Blazers predictions in these free NBA picks will focus on an unexpected quarter bet, an attempt at exploiting the schedule disadvantage felt by the home team. Tip comes at 6 p.m. ET this evening.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction
My best bet
Thunder third quarter -3.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Two different game states should both set up this bet.
First, if the Oklahoma City Thunder dominate the first half like they are certainly capable, perhaps leading by the eight suggested in the first-half spread, then the Portland Trail Blazers may fold up shop at halftime. That is not as callous as it sounds.
Portland is playing its third game in four nights. Fatigue will set in. As much discussion as back-to-backs get, the third game in four nights that they often set up can be just as exhausting. Furthermore, OKC has had three days off.
Giving the Thunder that kind of rest advantage in what was always going to be a mismatch of a game was cruel by the NBA schedule-makers, very much slipping a game in behind the NFL Conference Championships and hoping no one would pay it much heed.
Secondly, perhaps OKC comes out sluggish. It would not be a shock. The Thunder have won their last two first halves by just two points each, falling well short of each of those spreads. This is a young roster that knows it sits atop the standings. That can be taken for granted.
Focus should then follow that halftime. It did not against the Mavericks a few nights ago, but Dallas seems to hold Oklahoma City’s kryptonite. The night before that, the Thunder indeed won the third quarter against the Jazz by four points.
Either game state should set up this unexpected bet.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
Thunder third quarter -3.5
Thunder moneyline
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 10.5 points
The biggest acquisition of OKC’s offseason, both literally and figuratively, has played only 24 of 44 games, but the Thunder are 22-2 in those 24 games.
Isaiah Hartenstein is a key piece, and in his expected return from a five-game absence due to a calf injury, Oklahoma City should focus on him. Getting him back into a groove sooner than later will ease the entire roster’s workload late in the season.
Yes, that suggests the Thunder should already be thinking about sewing up homecourt advantage in the playoffs so they do not need to stress about much of anything in the first half of April and can instead regain their legs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Trail Blazers odds
Thunder vs Trail Blazers live odds
Thunder vs Trail Blazers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -11.5 | Portland +11.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -650 | Portland +475
- Over/Under: Over 226 | Under 226
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with OKC favored by 11.5 points, a hefty number but a far too low one when remembering those three days of rest when Portland is on its third game in four nights.
- The spread climbed to -13.5 by morning and then reached -14 as Hartenstein’s availability became more certain.
- The total opened at 226 and held steady aside from a few brief moments at 225.5.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers trend
The Trail Blazers have won against the spread in just one of their last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Trail Blazers.
How to watch Thunder vs Trail Blazers
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date | Sunday, 1-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Oklahoma, BlazerVision |
Thunder vs Trail Blazers latest injuries
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