Timberwolves vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Handed a Beatdown in the 6ix

The Toronto Raptors seem to be peaking at the right time. As the regular season winds down, the Raps have won nine of their last 11 games and continue to climb up the Eastern Conference standings.

They’ll be in tough tonight though when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves have lost three of four but are looking to break a playoff drought and have had one of the NBA’s best offenses in the second half of the season. Can Toronto shut them down to cover the short spread, or is Minnesota a live dog?

Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Raptors on March 30.

Timberwolves vs Raptors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Raptors opened this matchup as 3-point home favorites but it’s the Wolves who have seen the early money, moving the line to 2.5. The total hit the board at 228 and has been bet up slightly to 229.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Timberwolves vs Raptors predictions

• Prediction: Raptors -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 229 (-110)
• Best bet: Siakam Over 13.5 asts + rebs (-110)

Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Timberwolves vs Raptors game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN, Bally Sports North

Timberwolves vs Raptors betting preview

Key injuries

Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels PF (Out), Malik Beasley SG (Out).
Raptors: Khem Birch C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-4 in the Raptors’ last 14 games as a favorite and 6-2 in their last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Raptors.

Timberwolves vs Raptors picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Raptors are peaking at the right time. They are once again healthy and have won nine of their last 11 games straight up, going 8-3 against the spread in the process. As a result, they have climbed to sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

They’ve done it thanks in part to the play of Pascal Siakam, who is making a strong case for All-NBA. Siakam is averaging 27.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists over that 11-game stretch. But it sure helps that he has his running mates like Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby back on the court.

With those three guys along with Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr., they are the best version of themselves and it’s no surprise the Raptors rank fourth in defensive rating over that span.

While the Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games, this is a dangerous offense. They have the NBA’s second-ranked offense since the All-Star break and one that is leading the league in scoring since then, putting up 123.1 points per game.

That offense is fueled by the trio of Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell, who have all played very well this season. Unfortunately, they just don’t match up well with the Raptors.

Toronto stifled that offense in a February 22 meeting, holding Minnesota to just 39% shooting from the floor in a 103-91 victory for the Raps. With their ability to switch all over the court, they can force you to become a jump-shooting team, which can he hit or miss depending on the opponent.

The Raptors are a funny team. They have consistently failed to cover as big home chalk, but in their last five games when favored by 5.5 points or less, they are 5-0 ATS. With the way Siakam and his squad are playing, we’re leaning towards backing the home team as short home faves.

Prediction: Raptors -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

While the side in this matchup seems a little more difficult to figure out, the total feels more like a safer play. It’s not surprising to see a big total like this for a Timberwolves game considering their offense and the rate at which they have been cashing Overs, but this number is too high for this matchup.

For starters, we talked about how the Raptors' defense is whole again and firing on all cylinders. They also are among the league leaders in steals this season and are  great at creating problems for opponents with all their switches and double teams. 

Now, do I think they’ll hold this Wolves offense to 91 points again? No, that’s probably not going to happen. But the Raps will be aggressive on defense, and on offense they will slow the tempo of the game way down and force Minnesota to play at their pace.

That’s not the only reason to like the Under though. The Timberwolves have been surprisingly effective on defense as well, ranking ninth in the NBA in defensive rating since the All-Star break. And while the Raptors are hot, their offense ranks a mediocre 19th in that same stretch putting up just 110.7 ppg, ranking 23rd in that time frame.

Prediction: Under 229 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

As we’ve talked about, Siakam has been making a case for All-NBA down the stretch. He is such a tough cover at the moment and the Wolves don’t have a great player to stick on him and I expect him to fully take advantage of the mismatches.

Siakam is contributing 8.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists over his last 10 games, going Over 13.5 points + rebounds five times over that span. While that may not seem like a great ratio, the matchup against the Timberwolves takes it over the top.

Minnesota ranks 23rd in opponent rebounds per game and 26th in opponent assists per game. And in that Feb. 22 meeting, Siakam hauled down nine rebounds while dishing out nine assists. Expect him to run the offense a bunch tonight and go Over his assists + rebounds prop.

Pick: Pascal Siakam Over 13.5 assists + rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)

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