After the sun set early on their playoff stay last season, the Phoenix Suns look like a team on a mission. They have scorched their opponents on the way to a 5-1 start and have the best point differential in the NBA.
They’ll look to stay hot when they host the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night. The Wolves are clearly still working out the kinks that come along with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns both on the court. The team is 4-3, but the schedule has been as soft as ice cream left out in the sun.
Can Minnesota step up its game and contain Phoenix's superstar Devin Booker? I dig through the numbers and bring you my best bet on the hardcourt in my NBA betting picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
Timberwolves vs Suns best odds
Timberwolves vs Suns picks and predictions
Devin Booker’s scorching hot play is a big reason why the Suns are off to a fantastic start this season. The three-time All-Star is averaging 29.3 points with 5.5 assists while shooting 52.9% from the field through the team’s first six games.
Tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against a Timberwolves team that is going through some growing pains with Rudy Gobert at the center of their new-look roster. While Gobert has obviously done wonders for the team’s interior defense, with him and Karl-Anthony Towns on the floor, the Wolves have become a little vulnerable against the 3-ball.
In fact, Minnesota is allowing the second most 3-point attempts per game so far this season and ranks a middle-of-the-pack 15th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (34.5%).
While Booker is just 1 of 11 from 3-point range over his last two games, I believe that is just giving us some value with his made threes prop. The Suns’ guard began the year going 12-for-25 (48%) from downtown, hitting three or more threes three times in his first four games. Booker is also coming off a season in which he hit 38.3% of his seven 3-point attempts per game.
Book will know the best way to attack the Timberwolves in this matchup will be from beyond the arc, I expect him to find his rhythm against a lax Minnesota perimeter defense and go Over this reasonable number for his made threes prop.
My best bet: Devin Booker Over 2.5 made threes (-105)
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Timberwolves vs Suns spread analysis
The movement on this line has been interesting so far. The Suns hit the board as 5-point home chalk but were quickly bet all the way down to 3.5 before rebounding to 4.0. And while I don’t have an official play on the side, I certainly have a strong lean toward the Suns.
It’s not just that they are 5-1. It’s the way they are 5-1. They are just firing on all cylinders. Booker is cooking. Deandre Ayton looks happy at the moment. Chris Paul is still doing his thing. They are just getting after it all over the court.
Phoenix ranks second in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. So, it’s not surprising the team leads the NBA in net rating.
On top of that, they've done it against mostly strong competition. They've not only beaten, but crushed teams like the Pelicans, Warriors, and Clippers.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves enter this game at 4-3. A number that would look better if not for the teams they have played. Minnesota has already played the Spurs three times, OKC twice, the Lakers, and the Jazz.
And even though Gobert has helped the team defense (Minnesota ranks sixth in defensive rating), the offense is still a major work in progress, ranking 24th in offensive rating.
Minnesota is just too inconsistent on offense, and Phoenix has the bodies to match up against Gobert and Towns. And like I said, the Suns aren’t just winning, they're dismantling teams. They’ve won four straight, covering the spread by an average of 18.5 points per game.
Laying four at home in this matchup shouldn’t be a problem.
Timberwolves vs Suns Over/Under analysis
The total for this Western Conference xlash hit the board at a high 230 and the early action been on the Under — moving the number to 227 as of Tuesday afternoon.
The number is this high for a few reasons. One is obviously the success of the Suns' offense. An offense that is good enough and smart enough to take advantage of the Timberwolves' weaknesses on defense. Phoenix's 118.7 points per game is second-best in the NBA and it has put up some big numbers against other good defenses.
The other reason is that the Wolves play fast. Really fast. Minnesota ranks fourth in the NBA in pace. But it needs all those possessions because it has generally been a poor shooting team this season — ranking 21st in effective field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point percentage. And as I have noted, these numbers haven’t come exactly top teams.
That won’t play well against a strong defensive team like the Suns. Mix in the slow pace Phoenix likes to play at and I tend to agree with the early money and lean toward the Under.
Timberwolves vs Suns betting trend to know
The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home dating back to last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Suns.
Timberwolves vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
