The NBA schedule is almost at the finish line and tonight's odds board has six games to wager on.
I push the point spreads and totals to the side and dive into NBA player props for tonight's slate, giving my best NBA picks and predictions for April 3.
Best NBA player props today
Carter Over 7.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365) 
Hachimura Over 1.5 threes (+130 at bet365) 
Herro Over 3.5 threes (+135 at bet365)
NBA player props for April 3
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 7.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
The Orlando Magic are fighting to the finish, trying to slide into the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and avoid the Play-In.
The Washington Wizards, on the other hand, are not. The Wizards are at the bottom of the East, firting with the worst record in the league (and a better shot at future No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg).
Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. will see plenty of rebounding chances vs. Washington tonight.
Orlando is the second-best defense in the NBA and faces a Wizards offense that couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat. Washington shoots a measly 44% from the field, which means a surplus of wayward shots coming off the glass.
The Wizards are also at the bottom of the barrel in rebounding, ranked 29th in rebound rate and allowing foes to scoop up a league-high 56.9 rebounds a night.
The last time these teams clashed, the Magic checked Washington to 42.5% shooting and outrebounded the Wiz 55-41, with 12 coming from Carter.
He averages 7.3 rebounds per game, and his rebounding efforts have fluctuated due to foul trouble and blowouts trimming his minutes. But player projections are bullish on Carter’s work on the glass tonight, with models ranging from 7.0 to 8.9 rebounds, while my number comes out to 8.7.
Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 threes (+130 at bet365)
Rui Hachimura is working his way back into the Los Angeles Lakers’ rotation after missing most of March due to injury.
The small forward has watched his floor time pick up since coming back on March 22, and he logged 31 minutes in Monday’s win over Houston, shooting 3-for-10 from the floor for only seven points. However, six of those shots came from beyond the arc (1-for-6).
Before the knee injury at the end of February, Hachimura was blossoming in this new-look Lakers lineup and finished the month averaging 16.4 points per game. A big part of that production was his 3-point shooting.
Hachimura knocked down more than two triples on almost six attempts per outing in February, with scorers LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves creating a ton of space for him on the outside.
“I think we can get literally wide-open shots every time,” Hachimura said of playing alongside those standouts. “For other teams, they have to guard those three guys literally.”
Los Angeles will need Rui to let it rip from long range tonight, facing the dangerous perimeter play of the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs knock down the fourth most 3-pointers per game in the NBA and that will prompt L.A. to go tit-for-tat from distance.
Hachimura was 1-for-5 from outside in his most recent run-in with the Dubs on February 6 but had a huge day from deep at Golden State on Christmas Day, making 5 of 7 threes in an 18-point effort. Before Monday’s 1-for-6 day, he was 7-for-9 from beyond the arc in the two games prior.
Player projections aren’t bullish on Hachimura’s output from long range, with most models sitting right on this total of 1.5 triples. But with this Over 1.5 paying +130 — and Hachimura returning to his usual minutes and offensive touches — there’s value in two or more 3-balls tonight.
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 threes (+135 at bet365)
The Miami Heat are fighting to stay in the Play-In in the East but are working with a thin roster in the home stretch.
The Heat could be without Andrew Wiggins, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love for tonight’s tilt with the Memphis Grizzlies. That means the offensive load, especially from outside, falls on sharpshooter Tyler Herro.
Herro has been huge for the Heat in recent games, but his success from long range is spotty. He’s 2-for-12 from beyond the arc in the past two outings. He gets to come home for this matchup with Memphis tonight, shooting almost 38% from distance in South Beach. Before this recent blip from beyond the arc, Herro had made four or more 3-pointers in three straight games (two coming at home).
The Grizzlies do a great job protecting the interior with shot blockers patrolling the paint, which pushes foes to the outside. Memphis has allowed 14.4 threes per game — the fourth most in the NBA.
Player projections for Herro range between 3.0 and 3.8 makes from long range tonight, which gives value to the Over 3.5 threes with the vig up to +135.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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