Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Dame Time Returns in Full Force

Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers will look to pick up a second straight win on Monday night when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves at the back end of their two-game series.

The Trail Blazers won the first game of the series – also in Portland – on Saturday night, beating the Timberwolves 124-118. Lillard scored 36 points and dished out eight assists in the win.

Portland will be looking for another big game out of Lillard in order to earn a series sweep. We’ll break down whether he’ll put on a repeat performance tonight in our NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers on December 12.

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers best odds

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

Damian Lillard missed seven games with a right calf strain, during which time the Portland Trail Blazers went just 2-5 without their star. 

Since he came back on December 4, Lillard has led Portland to two wins in three games, with the only loss coming by one point to the Nuggets. Lillard may have eased back into the lineup in his first game back, but Dame Time has been up to his usual efforts in his last two appearances. 

Lillard scored 40 points against Denver, then put up 36 against the Timberwolves in Saturday’s win. The 32-year-old point guard is averaging 27.6 points and 7.4 assists per game, though injuries have limited him to just 14 games this season.

There’s no indication that Lillard’s injuries will slow Lillard in Monday night’s matchup. He has looked fresh and healthy in his last three games, shooting 44.7% from 3-point range while averaging 32.3 points since returning to action.

Minnesota isn’t well-suited to defending Lillard, which helps explain how he ran over them on Saturday. The Timberwolves are allowing opponents to shoot 37.4% from behind the arc, among the worst figures in the NBA.

Minnesota also likes to speed up the game, with the third-highest pace factor in the league. While Portland doesn’t like to push the pace, the Timberwolves almost always play to high scores, boosting the scoring output for just about everyone on the court.

All these factors point to Lillard having another big night for the Blazers on Monday. Surprisingly, however, most sportsbooks don’t see it that way. Across the industry, the consensus Over/Under on Lillard’s Monday point total is a fairly modest 27.5, with just a little added juice on the Over at some books. 

The relatively low total is in line with Lillard’s season averages. He is putting up 27.6 points per game, though that number includes a couple of performances where he was limited by his injuries.

With a healthy Lillard likely to play somewhere around 40 minutes against a Timberwolves defense that isn’t adept at shutting down opposing stars, he should be able to exceed that total on Monday. I’m happy to continue backing the Over on Lillard at this modest number under Minnesota proves it has an answer for Dame Time.

My best bet: Damian Lillard Over 27.5 points (-115)

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

Portland opened tonight’s game as a 4.5-point favorite. The Timberwolves have gotten some love from bettors, but only enough to bring the line down by about a half-point. The most common line is now Minnesota +4, with a few +4.5 lines still out there.

That line looks reasonable at first glance, as the Trail Blazers won the last meeting between these two teams by six points. Overall, these two teams have played fairly similarly this year, with Portland only one game ahead of Minnesota in the Western Conference standings. The Trail Blazers have posted a slightly better point differential as well, though both are slightly negative by less than a point per game.

The biggest reason not to trust these baseline numbers is the fact that Portland has had to play with Lillard for much of the season. With Dame in the lineup, the Trail Blazers are a far better team than their overall record suggests. Portland is 9-5 on the year with Lillard in the lineup and just 5-7 without him.

The combination of a healthy Lillard and home-court advantage is enough to see Portland as a fairly significant favorite in tonight’s matchup. I’m betting on the Trail Blazers to cover the 4-point spread on Monday.

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

NBA odds opened the total for tonight’s game at 232 points. The Over/Under has drifted downward throughout the day, and as of noon on Monday, it now sits at 230 at most sites. 

The Blazers have played over this number in their last two games, with Saturday’s battle with the Timberwolves coming in at 242, well over tonight’s total. However, that’s against the trend for Portland. The Trail Blazers are playing to an average total of about 223, and with Lillard in the lineup, they’ve only hit a total of 230 or higher four times in 14 games.

Minnesota does like to play fast and has produced bigger totals throughout the season. They’re averaging a total of 231.5 points per game, slightly above tonight’s posted line. The Timberwolves have also been trending toward the Over lately, with three of their past four games coming in over 230 points.

I’m more inclined to look at the long-term numbers for this total than worry about what has happened over the past couple of games. While the Timberwolves can play fast, they don’t generally go so high-tempo that they should consistently drag a slower Portland team into shootouts. The smart money is on the Under, and I’d take that bet at a site like PointsBet that is offering -107 on Under 230.5.

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers.

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