History already remembers the Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves rivalry for what was, unofficially, the NBA’s first Play-In game. Back in 2018, the two met in what both fanbases now refer to as “Game 82.”
It was a tipping point for both franchises, setting them on their trajectories back toward each other six years later.
One is a champion — the other aspires to be. The stage is set for our Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and preview as we break down the NBA playoff odds for Round 2.
Nuggets vs. Wolves preview: rivalry ignited
Let’s backtrack to April, 2018:
The winner of the final game of the regular season would get the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Taj Gibson blocked a Nikola Jokic jumper with 2.8 seconds left to force overtime, at which point Jimmy Butler’s seven points were enough to outscore the Denver Nuggets all on their own.
The Minnesota Timberwolves took that win as validation. Before Butler suffered a knee injury, they looked like a Top-3 team in the West. Winning under that pressure confirmed that bias, no matter the 4-1 series loss to the Rockets in the first round. That supposed proof gave Tom Thibodeau enough conviction to ignore Butler’s trade demands until it was too late to have any negotiating leverage on the open market, setting back the franchise years until it landed the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft.
Denver took that loss as both a proof of concept and an urge to change. Jokic and Jamal Murray could lead a team (combining for 55 points, 16 rebounds, and 9 assists that night), but more talent was needed. The Nuggets drafted Michael Porter Jr. that spring.
Do not think for a moment that this rivalry has been dormant in the interim. They meet four times each season, and more notably, Denver openly admits Minnesota, though depleted by injuries to one starter and two more rotation pieces, gave it the toughest test during the Nuggets’ title run last year, even if it was only a five-game series.
Those will all be distant memories once the series begins. These two have been readying for this collision for two years.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets series odds
Denver Nuggets -205
Minnesota Timberwolves +164- Denver Nuggets -1.5 (+104)
- Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 (-128)
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook on 5-1.
Those odds suggest a seven-game series, with the Nuggets -205 favorites because Game 7 would obviously be in Denver. If nothing else, this may be the single-best series of the entire NBA playoffs, including the rounds to come.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets series preview
Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly — directly from that role in Denver — made the trade for Rudy Gobert in the summer of 2022 specifically to try to combat the Nuggets’ size advantage. In many ways, the frontline matchup will define most of this series:
Jokic, Porter, and Aaron Gordon vs. Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid.
That comparison is not perfect, given the Denver trio of bigs may need to play nearly every minute, while Minnesota enjoys depth for days, but it underscores the need Connelly was attempting to address when he traded for Gobert, kept Towns despite myriad trade rumors, and then re-signed Reid in the summer of 2023.
When healthy, the Timberwolves have put Towns on Jokic the last two seasons and stashed Gobert on Gordon. One of Minnesota’s wings attempts to keep Porter off the boards.
That defensive alignment is intended to allow Gobert to remain a defensive weapon, largely ignoring Gordon in the corner. The cost is that Jokic works over Towns. That is not a knock on KAT. Jokic is about to win his third MVP for a reason. He averaged 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists in this series a year ago.
Jokic will work his magic
Let’s start there: Jokic will put up prodigal stats in this series, even against the best defense in the NBA. The Timberwolves would rather he not, but they understand some things in life are inevitable. Mitigating Jokic’s greater impact is their best hope.
He is the favorite to score the most points in the series (+155, compared to Anthony Edwards next at +165) and to notch the most assists (-650), with only Gobert ahead of him to collect more rebounds (-115 vs. +110).
Minnesota’s counters to the best player in the world are three-fold. First of all, the Timberwolves defense. Gobert headlines and anchors it. He is about to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award for a reason.
Even when an opponent gets by their defender, they often alter or give up on their drive because of Gobert’s looming presence. He blocks fewer shots than other star defenders because opponents know better than to try him.
A lot of ‘neverminds’ forced by Rudy Gobert in the first half of the Wolves’ most recent game against Denver (4/10) — a game KAT missed, so a game we saw more of Gobert on Nikola Jokic. pic.twitter.com/T49lfpMKJt
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) May 1, 2024
But the defense extends well beyond Gobert. The perimeter trio of Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker just detonated the Suns’ supposed offensive stars of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Their ability and dedication to rotating as opponents attempt to make an extra pass has effectively interrupted what is otherwise considered to be excellent basketball.
The pack runs deep
Having three wings like that gives Minnesota two edges on Denver. First of all, the Nuggets don’t have a third perimeter-based offensive weapon. Jamal Murray and Porter are flanked by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who went 8-of-28 from deep (28.6%) in the five-game series win against the Lakers while averaging 8.4 points. The Timberwolves will dare survive a KCP explosion.
So, when all three of Minnesota’s best wing defenders are on the court, they can help Towns on Jokic while also encouraging Towns to make the right defensive play, as well.
The play, a two-point game with Phoenix ball and 2:40 left to go ...https://t.co/4UDeSnH63f
— Douglas Farmer 🐺 (@D_Farmer) April 29, 2024
Secondly, those three can stagger their work. Which brings us to the Timberwolves’ most underrated edge in this series. Four of Denver’s starters averaged more than 39 minutes against the Lakers, a series in which the Nuggets should have theoretically had an easier time. Caldwell-Pope slacked off with just 36 minutes per game.
Only Edwards averaged more than 39 minutes among Minnesota’s starters in the first-round sweep of Phoenix. McDaniels and Gobert both reached 35 minutes, already fewer than Caldwell-Pope, and those numbers were not lessened by the blowouts of the Suns. The Timberwolves kept their leaders in up until the last minute or two of each game. Minnesota is comfortably eight-deep in its rotation, while Denver is eight-deep at best, with none of the three bench players in question — Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Reggie Jackson — averaging more than four points per game against Los Angeles.
Caldwell-Pope and Murray are already banged up, with an ankle worry and a two-month-long calf/shin problem, respectively. They will not get much rest in the next round, while the Timberwolves can endure foul trouble or fatigue thanks to their depth.
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Shooters shoot
Well, foul trouble for anyone but Edwards. Similarly, Denver might not have an offensive recourse if Murray is on the bench in any fashion.
Edwards is the ascending star in these playoffs. Murray remains the underappreciated one.
WHAT A BUCKET. THIS IS JAMAL MURRAY EVERYONE. 🏹 pic.twitter.com/xfihf0lXAe
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) April 23, 2024
He just hit two last-second shots in one series. This is not new for him. He powered the Nuggets past the Timberwolves in last year’s playoffs with 40 points in Game 2 and 35 in Game 5. Minnesota did not have its best perimeter defender (McDaniels), and the roster was shorthanded in other ways, but when Murray gets hot like that, there is no stopping him.
This prop bet does not exist, but … Whichever of Murray or Edwards scores more fourth-quarter points in this series, expect his team to win.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction
That trio of Minnesota wing defenders should change any and all expectations heading into this series. Across the last month of the regular season, the Suns’ offensive rating ranked No. 9 in the NBA at 116.1. That fell to 109.3 in the first round of the playoffs.
Edwards, McDaniels and Alexander-Walker will impact Jokic a little bit, but their biggest effect will be plaguing Murray, already hampered. This calf/shin splint issue has been around since February. Sitting for two weeks to end March did not rectify it entirely. Five days off this week will not, either.
This is overstating both his injury and the reach of those defenders, but Denver’s offensive rating without Murray in 23 games this season fell by 4.3 points compared to with him. Shutting him down will tilt this series, and that will be the Timberwolves’ intent.
Depth and defense should key Minnesota to a victory and its first Western Conference Finals appearance in 20 years.
My best bet: Timberwolves series price (+175 at DraftKings)
