All eyes are on the Sacramento Kings and if they can keep hold of the top spot in the Pacific Division as we enter the post-break schedule.
After a sterling start to the season, Sacramento is the hunted in the division, with rivals like the Suns, Clippers, and Lakers all making moves for a postseason push. The Kings can help prove they’re no pushovers with a strong showing against the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday.
Portland enters the home stretch of the season on the cusp of the playoff cut and backed into the break with just two wins in its past six games. After a very strong start for bettors (20-10 ATS in first 30 games), the Blazers have burned their backers for a 10-18 ATS mark since mid-December.
I run down the spread and total as well as give my best NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Kings on February 23.
Trail Blazers vs Kings best odds
Trail Blazers vs Kings picks and predictions
Shaking off the rust of the All-Star break can be tough for any team. That task can be especially daunting when you’re feeling the pains of travel trouble for your first game back.
The Trail Blazers planned to fly into Sacramento on Wednesday, but nasty weather forced the team to sit on the runway for hours before their chartered flight was eventually cancelled.
Portland will instead fly in Thursday morning, making gameday a lot more hectic than the team had originally planned.
You don’t want to come out flat against a team like Sacramento. The Kings put up points in bulk and run deep in scoring talent, with six players averaging double figures. That includes shooting guard Malik Monk, who will return to the lineup tonight after missing the last two games before the break with an ankle injury.
Portland isn’t a great defensive club to begin with, plunked at 27th in defensive rating, and was bombarded in the final six games before the break, allowing foes to average more than 126 points on 52.8% shooting.
Many of those foes ranked near the top of the pace ratings (Golden State, OKC, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee) and the Blazers now face an up-tempo Kings attack (10th in pace) that likes to get out in transition and push the basketball. Portland has allowed the eighth-highest points per possession to transition offenses and lacks the legs to run with Sacramento.
The Blazers are running thin despite the mid-season hiatus allowing for time to heal. They’re still without center Jusuf Nurkic and guard Anfernee Simons, shaking up the starting lineup and leaving coach Chauncey Billups to rely on role players.
While Portland got the best of Sacramento when these teams met back in October, the Blazers’ fortunes have flipped since the calendar turned to 2023. A bad matchup, injuries, and travel troubles compound into another ATS miss tonight.
My best bet: Sacramento -6 (-110 at Pinnacle)
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Trail Blazers vs Kings spread analysis
Sacramento opened as low as -5.5 on Monday, with books hanging odds on these Thursday games early after the All-Star break. That spread has bounced around a bit, climbing as high as -6.5 as of Thursday morning.
The Kings closed out the first half of the calendar as the top-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 119.5 points per contest and touting the No. 2 offensive efficiency rating in the league. Sacramento has a bevy of scoring options, boasting a bench that contributes almost 37 points per contest.
Portland enters the post-break landscape down two starters in center Nurkic and guard Simons, who contribute a combined 35.2 points per game. The remaining Trail Blazers pale in comparison to the scoring depth of the Kings, with All-Star guard Damian Lillard doing the heavy lifting on offense.
As mentioned, the Blazers were one of the best bets in basketball to start the season, but the market has corrected hard on their nightly odds, leaving them to go just 10-18 ATS in the past 28 contests. Sacramento’s sudden success was also an early-season windfall, pumping out a 19-11 ATS mark out of the gate. But those spreads have puffed up, with the Kings owning an 11-15-1 ATS record in the past 27 outings.
Trail Blazers vs Kings Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under for this matchup hit the board at 239.5 and quickly rushed upwards to as high as 241 before injury news out of Portland trimmed the total to 240.5 points on Thursday morning.
Defensive issues have sent the majority of the Blazers’ recent games Over the number, with an 8-4 O/U count in their last dozen games. Portland has watched five of its last six foes surpass the 120-point mark and is now facing the top-scoring team in the NBA.
Sacramento’s scoring prowess has the team constantly taking on tall totals, which has led to a 27-29-1 O/U record on the year. The Kings are also among the softer defenses in the NBA, lugging an advanced rating that sits 22nd in the Association.
Both teams love to chuck from beyond the arc, with Sacramento and Portland sitting No. 7 and No. 8 respectively in points from 3-pointers. And neither side is especially stingy when it comes to defending the arc, both sitting Bottom 8 in opponent 3-point percentage.
Should this total close at 240 or higher, it will be the 14th Over/Under of 240-plus for the Kings this season, with the team going 5-8 O/U in the previous 13 matchups with those taller totals.
Trail Blazers vs Kings betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Kings.
Trail Blazers vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, February 23, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT Sports, NBCS-CA |
