Trail Blazers vs Raptors Picks and Predictions: VanVleet Will Take Plenty of Shots Against Portland

The Portland Trail Blazers continue their trip East with a stop north of the border, taking on the Toronto Raptors for a Sunday matinee.

Portland opened this three-game road set with losses at Minnesota and Indiana and has just three wins in its last 10 overall, going back to the middle of December. Toronto is also mired in a slump, having dropped three straight outings and picking up only one victory in its last six contests.

I run down the point spread and total for this non-conference clash and give my best NBA betting picks and predictions for the Trail Blazers vs. Raptors on January 8.

Trail Blazers vs Raptors best odds

Trail Blazers vs Raptors picks and predictions

Managing Fred VanVleet’s minutes was something the Raptors talked about heading into the season, knowing the scrappy guard was going to be at the center of this offense. But with the team tumbling, head coach Nick Nurse has no choice but to lean into his limited stars.

VanVleet has scored 28 points in each of the past two games, putting in 41 and 47 minutes of floor time. He’s also been extremely active as a shooter, with a combined 44 field goal attempts in those contests — including 23 attempts from beyond the arc.

Nurse admits that it's difficult to get VanVleet any downtime considering the close games Toronto has been in, and given the inconsistent offense from the starting five and a near-invisible bench, which is averaging less than 10 points in support during the Raps’ current three-game slide. 

Given that dependency and this point spread is calling for another tight contest, it seems a little shocking to see VanVleet’s points prop total for Sunday set below 20, with bookies pegging this prop at 19.5 points (Over -108). This matchup with Portland could be what Toronto needs to get right, given the Blazers’ road woes and early start time for a West Coast club. 

Portland also has a tough time slowing down transition offenses, which is something Toronto lives and dies with. The Blazers allow the fifth-most points per play defending transition, with those foes enjoying a 53.4% scoring frequency. They’ve also struggled to contain rival guards, allowing an average of 67.6 points to the position — seventh most in the league.

VanVleet is averaging just less than 19 points per game on the year, while averaging 37 minutes and just under 16 field goal attempts. He’s more active as a shooter in home games overall (17.4 shots per) and should he breach 20-plus attempts again Sunday, should he continue to log those minutes.

In the nine games in which VanVleet has shot the ball 20 or more times this season, he’s averaging 30.2 points per game. Given this modest player prop on points, we’re not asking for that much as he fights to right the ship Sunday afternoon.

My best bet: Fred VanVleet Points Over 19.5 (-115 at Pointsbet)

Trail Blazers vs Raptors spread analysis

The Raptors opened as 3-point home favorites hosting the Blazers in a 3:30 p.m. ET tipoff Sunday — a 12 noon start time in PT for Portland. That spread has climbed a touch to Toronto -3.5 at some books as of Sunday morning.

The Raptors enter this afternoon affair trying to solve their offensive woes, having shot a league-low 39.3% from the floor during their three-game losing skid. Toronto started ice cold in its most recent loss, putting up 47 points at the half before scoring 61 in the final two frames in a 112-108 defeat to the rival Knicks on Friday.

After battling through injury at the end of December, standout guard Fred VanVleet has put the offense on his back the past two games with twin 28-point efforts against New York and Milwaukee but isn’t getting consistent support from others in the Raps lineup, especially the reserves.

Toronto severely lacks depth, averaging only 30.1 points per game from the bench on the year and an embarrassing 9.7 average points from the reserves during this three-game slide.  

Portland suffers from a similar ailment, leaning heavily on the starters with only 24.9 points from the pine on the season — lowest in the NBA. However, the Blazers are expected to get two-way guard Gary Payton II back in action tonight and starting center Jusuf Nurkic is playing after battling the flu for the past week.

The Raptors are 10-11 ATS at home this season and have failed to cover in five of their last six outings overall. The Trail Blazers have covered just twice in their last eight outings and own a 12-11 ATS count as visitors this season, including losing six straight away games and owning a 0-6 ATS mark in those contests.

Trail Blazers vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total hit the board at 225 points and has climbed to as high as 227 at some respected online books, with early play on the Over and the Blazers expected to have offensive contributors like Payton and Nurkic on the floor.

This short number not only reflects the offensive woes shared by these teams, but also their offensive pace as well, with Portland and Toronto ranking 24th and 25th in pace rating, respectively. 

The Blazers do have trouble replicating their offensive efforts away from home, averaging more than 10 points less per game when hitting the highway (108.4 points per road game vs. 118.5 at home).

Portland is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the NBA inside the Moda Center (40%) but watches that success rate slip to 36.4% in foreign gyms, with the team making three fewer triples per game. That discrepancy has led to an 8-15 O/U record on the road compared to 8-5-2 O/U at home.

Toronto is 21-18 Over/Under entering Sunday and has gone Over the number in eight of its last dozen games since the middle of December. The Raptors' pace, offensive limitations, and sound defense keep totals on the low end, with most games closing with a sub-220 number.

Trail Blazers vs Raptors betting trend to know

Portland is 2-8 ATS in its last eight road games including failing to cover in six straight outings as the visitor. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Raptors.

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