Trail Blazers vs Thunder Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: It's SGA Day!

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an anomaly. They’re the NBA’s second-youngest team, and yet they sit half a game back from the top of the Western Conference nearly halfway through the season and are showing no signs of slowing down. They play within themselves, shoot great percentages, and rarely turn the ball over. They seem to welcome pressure. In other words, they play like veterans. 

Their opponents on Thursday, January 11 are the Portland Trail Blazers. They’re a young team and they play like it, even though they’re older than the Thunder. They’re still establishing an identity, getting reps in close games, and learning how to bounce back from crushing losses like the one they suffered to the New York Knicks on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, they're double-digit underdogs in the NBA odds.

My NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Thunder think the value on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 3-point prop is too good to pass up.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder odds

Trail Blazers vs Thunder predictions

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder is the rare player who seems to be winning over the hearts and minds of not only young fans and players but also the older generation of retired NBA stars and media members. It’s not hard to see why. Shai marries an incredibly aesthetically pleasing and unique offensive game with a decidedly old-school process. 

He’s known for his herky-jerky, stop-motion movement style that enables him, as a 6-foot-6 guard, to thrive in the paint and the midrange. He’s taken that style to its highest form, blazing a trail to the highest rungs of the MVP ladder with an old-school game reminiscent of Tracy McGrady and Michael Jordan. If the midrange shooting is a dying art, then he is one of its true remaining masters. 

So what do you get the guard who has everything?

Why, a pull-up 3-point shot of course. A dose of new school goes a long way when you’re the NBA’s best driver, nearly unguardable one-on-one, an elite foul drawer, and shooting over 50% from the midrange. Opponents are so locked in on trying to prevent Shai’s drives that they’re ill-prepared when he steps into an open three in transition.

And Shai is doing exactly that more and more in this recent stretch, punishing defenses for selling out on his drives, or not sticking closely enough to him on screens. SGA is shooting 52.4% from downtown through five games in January while upping his volume. He’s also hit at least two threes in seven of his last eight games. 

Yet despite this consistency, this prop has remained unchanged and at plus money value since the end of December. There were a lot of potential directions to go with a bet for today’s matchup, but the significant plus money value offered by these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds was too good to pass up.

My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 made threes (+130 at bet365)

Trail Blazers vs Thunder same-game parlay

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 made threes

Anfernee Simons 3+ made threes

Jalen Williams Over 21.5 pts+rebs

+410 at DraftKings

Anfernee Simons is carrying a heavy load for the Portland Trail Blazers, but he’s doing an admirable job as their top scorer. His pull-up shooting is a weapon the Blazers are used to weaponizing from the Damian Lillard era, and he’s stepped right into many of the pet sets that Portland used to run for Dame.

OKC allows a ton of threes in turn. The Thunder have a lot of strong defenders on the interior and the perimeter, but if they have an area of weakness, it’s matching up with quick twitch pull-up guards like Simons. 

Shai and Lu Dort are probably their best on-ball perimeter guys who could plausibly guard Ant. OKC won’t risk tiring SGA by covering Simons all game while Dort is probably not quick enough to contest over a screen to bother Simons much. The Thunder also allow one of the highest opponent 3-point attempt rates in the NBA.

Meanwhile, Jalen Williams is a star in waiting. On just about any other team, his draft and development story would be the most important and frequently discussed topic, but because he’s neither the Thunder’s best player nor is he currently outdueling Victor Wembanyama in the race for Rookie of the Year like Chet Holmgren, he’s somewhat under-discussed. 

Williams has improved his efficiency and usage dramatically in his sophomore season, in part because he’s improved as a jump shooter from midrange and from deep. He’s averaging 25.2 combined points and rebounds over his last 10 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

Oklahoma City opened as 14.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but that’s come down slightly to between -13 and -12.5.

When these teams last played on November 19, the Thunder blew the Blazers out 134-91. Oklahoma City has only gotten better since then, but the Blazers have also gotten major reinforcements in the meantime. Neither Simons nor Scoot Henderson played in that game and both have been difference-makers for the Blazers in the weeks since.

However, Portland is just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games overall. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Thunder have a +4.5 spread differential over the past two weeks and a +8 point differential for the season. I’d lean toward the Thunder, particularly if the spread continues moving in Portland’s favor.

Thursday’s total opened between 232 and 233.5 but has since climbed as high as 236, a testament to the Thunder’s recent offense. This team is nearly shooting north of 50% from the field and 40% from three and has hit 50% or better from the field in nine straight games. 

The Blazers defense was feisty for a while there, but injuries to their frontcourt as well as the malaise of losing have sapped some of their juice on that side of the ball. Simons and Shaedon Sharpe also provide the Thunder with numerous places to attack on any given possession.

OKC’s defense has quietly taken a step back in the last two weeks as well. Per Cleaning the Glass the Thunder have ranked just 19th on defense over their last seven games.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Thunder.

Trail Blazers vs Thunder game info

Trail Blazers vs Thunder latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic