The NBA season begins its unofficial second half as teams emerge from the All-Star break. So, now is a great time to look at the NBA odds for updated regular season win totals.
Did trades help or hurt some teams? Who can stay hot? And can the Philadelphia 76ers pull themselves out of this nosedive of a season?
Here are my favorite Over and Under NBA picks for the remainder of the season.
Updated NBA win total picks
Toronto Raptors Under 27.5 Wins (-110 at DraftKings)
The Toronto Raptors are the team I am most tapped into, and this number has been elevated just a little too much.
The Raptors come out of the All-Star break with a 17-38 record, which is a .309 winning percentage and the fifth-worst mark in the NBA. But still, they went out and traded for Brandon Ingram at the trade deadline.
Their current winning percentage has them on pace for 25.3 wins. Clearly, oddsmakers think the addition of Ingram will improve that. But I’m not so sure Masi Ujiri and the Raptors’ brass want to risk their shot at adding another affordable top draft pick to this roster.
Toronto immediately resigned Ingram to a three-year extension. He is part of the long game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if his playing is very limited for the rest of the season. He is currently projected to be out for at least another month with a sprained ankle. Let’s just see how often he is on the court down the stretch.
Philadelphia 76ers Under 34.5 Wins (-110 at FanDuel)
Calling the first half of the season a dumpster fire for the Philadelphia 76ers feels like underselling how they performed when you considered their expectations.
This team was projected to be among the contenders in the Eastern Conference but exits the All-Star break with a 20-34 record. That’s an ugly .370 winning percentage and puts the Sixers on pace to finish the year at 30-52.
Yet, oddsmakers have their updated regular season win total sitting at 34.5. That means Philly will have to finish better than .500 over its final 28 games. I just don’t see it.
How many games do we really think Joel Embiid will play over these final 28 games? Twenty, maybe? Even when he has been on the court this season, his play has been inconsistent, averaging just 24.9 points per game with the lowest eFG% of his career.
Plus, the Sixers are just 8-9 with Embiid on the court this season. They have no chemistry, they have no depth, and I’d bet Embiid misses another handful of games. Under.
Los Angeles Clippers Over 46.5 Wins (+100 at DraftKings)
Let’s go from one team with an injury-prone franchise player to another. Only this time we are banking on them to stay healthy. I know that can be a lot to ask of Kawhi Leonard, but here we are.
But the Los Angeles Clippers are more than just Leonard. James Harden looks rejuvenated, Norm Powell is having what feels like his third breakout season, and most importantly, this is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. In fact, the Clippers come out of the break ranked second in defensive rating.
On top of that, Leonard is finally starting to look healthy. He has played in 15 of the Clippers' last 20 games and he’s logged more than 30 minutes on the court in each of his last three games overall.
L.A. owns a 31-23 record at this point in the season and is currently on pace for 47 wins. But with the way this team is playing, particularly on defense, and with the Pacific Division looking a little lackluster otherwise, I won’t be shocked if this team pushes for 50 wins.
Detroit Pistons Over 41.5 Wins (-130 at FanDuel)
The Detroit Pistons are one of the best stories in the NBA this season. They are just one year removed from going 14-68, and now they are 29-26 coming out of the All-Star break.
Cade Cunningham is unlocking his potential, leading a rapidly improving young core. But this is another team that has taken a big step forward defensively, too. Detroit ranks 12th in defensive rating this season.
The Pistons entered the break hot and hope to carry that momentum into the second half. At the current pace, Detroit would be at just over 43 wins. But a closer look at their record tells you the Pistons are 19-10 over their last 29 games. That’s a .655 winning percentage.
While they probably don’t keep up that pace, I do like them to finish slightly better than the .537 winning percentage they currently sport. Particularly when you consider how many bottom-feeding teams there are in the Eastern Conference.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
