[Editor's note: This story was written before 76ers star Ben Simmons was ruled out for tonight's game.]
The Philadelphia 76ers have an opportunity to add breathing room to the top of the Eastern Conference when they host the Golden State Warriors at the Wells Fargo Center Monday.
Philadelphia enters the day with a 1.5-game buffer atop the conference, riding a four-game winning streak and pegged as sizable NBA betting favorites against the Warriors. Golden State makes its fourth stop of a five-game road swing in Philly and had its four-game win streak snapped in Boston on Saturday night.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. 76ers on April 19.
Warriors vs 76ers odds
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia stretched from an overnight opener of -7.5 to -10 by lunch hour today at PointsBet USA, and the line is -9 as of 4:30 p.m. ET. Golden State is taking 59 percent of spread tickets, and spread money is almost dead even, with the Warriors landing 51 percent. The total opened at 225.5, peaked at 226, then dropped to 223, although the Over is drawing 70 percent of tickets and 76 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWarriors vs 76ers betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Stephen Curry G (Probable), Juan Toscano-Anderson F (Out), Eric Paschall F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
76ers: Ben Simmons G (Out), Tobias Harris F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in 76ers’ last six games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. 76ers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Warriors had a head of steam before falling to Boston on the weekend, riding a four-game win streak that has Golden State flirting with a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament. However, the Dubs built that momentum against some rotten defensive teams and haven’t faced the stiffest competition defensively this month, taking on the likes of Washington, Houston, and Oklahoma City.
Philadelphia is all about that defense right now, allowing a league-low 103.1 points per outing in April and limiting four of their nine foes this month to less than 100 points. The Sixers are hot off a 106-103 win over the L.A. Clippers, setting the tone with a 31-20 first quarter on Friday. Los Angeles (without Kawhi Leonard) had 19 total turnovers in the loss to Philadelphia, which the 76ers quickly flipped into 21 points.
The Sixers are making offense from defense and causing plenty of chaos, forcing an average of 16.7 turnovers in April and cashing in those errors for an NBA-high 21.2 points off turnovers this month. Golden State enters as one of the most mistake-prone teams in the NBA (14.9 turnovers per game) and handed the ball over 18 times in the loss to the Celtics.
Ben Simmons is the catalyst of this defensive pressure, swiping 18 steals in nine games this month, using his mix of speed and size to frustrate his matchups. Simmons is an especially tough assignment for Golden State star Stephen Curry, who stands eight inches shorter than the 6-foot-11 Simmons. On top of that, Curry is nursing a sprained ankle, suffered in Boston Saturday, but is probably for tonight's game.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Curry’s status will have a big impact on where this total goes, with the Dubs’ sharpshooter putting up just under 40 points a game in April. Books opened at 227.5 points and the total has dropped to 225.5, which is still the largest Over/Under Philly has faced during its four-game run.
Curry’s comments after Saturday’s loss — which he remained in following the fourth-quarter injury — made it sound like the ankle would be good enough to go and it appears that will be the case.
On top of smothering Curry, one of the best ways to handcuff the Warriors is to slow their tempo and play some calculated basketball on the other end. Golden State, which ranks as the second-fastest pace in the NBA, is missing some bigger pieces of its lineup with bodies like James Wiseman and Eric Paschall sidelined.
That leaves Golden State to lean on Kevon Looney and Draymond Green to combat the Sixers’ top-ranked post-up attack and MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid. He’s been on fire the past three games, posting scores of 36, 39, and 36 points and dominating the glass for 34 totals rebounds in that span. Expect Embiid to touch the ball on almost every Philadelphia possession, as the 76ers attempt 13.2 percent of their 2-point field goals with seven seconds or less on the shot clock this season.
PREDICTION: Under 225.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Warriors rank dead last in rebounding percentage at 47.3 and enter Monday’s game dangerously small against one of the best teams on the glass, with the Sixers hauling down 54.4 rebounds per outing — fourth most — and rounding up a rebound rate of almost 52 percent.
Embiid is the biggest force on the boards for Philadelphia, pulling down an average of over 11 rebounds on the season. He’s been especially active the past two contests, snatching 14 and 13 rebounds in wins over the Clippers and Nets.
The 76ers are a bigger defensive test for the Warriors, who have shot 47.9 percent from the field this month. That means some extra misses which Embiid will gobble up and go Over his rebounding total Monday night.
PREDICTION: Joel Embiid Over 12.5 rebounds (+105)
Warriors vs 76ers betting card
- Philadelphia -7.5 (-110)
- Under 225.5 (-110)
- Joel Embiid Over 12.5 rebounds (+105)
Picks made on 4/19/2021 at 7:51 a.m. ET
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