The Boston Celtics have begun to look human of late, losing four of their last seven games, but they’ll have the opportunity to get back on track on the road against a wounded Golden State Warriors team.
In my Celtics vs Warriors predictions, I’ll cover why even while dealing with many injuries there’s a lot to like about how this offense can match up with a struggling Celtics defense and exploit their weak spots.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Monday, January 20.
Celtics vs Warriors prediction
My best bet
Warriors +10.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Boston Celtics’ production has certainly dipped this month, but the most noticeable decline has come on defense where they’ve ranked 14th in points allowed per 100 possessions. They continue to do a good job at defending the rim but have fallen short elsewhere with the 17th-ranked 3-point defense this month according to Cleaning the Glass with a tough showing just inside the arc as well.
All of this is to say that in theory, the Golden State Warriors would be in an advantageous spot here. Boston hasn’t given up a ton of looks from downtown, but that will change against a Golden State team that sits inside the top six of the league in both shooting frequency and accuracy outside. It has taken the fewest shots at the rim this month but still ranks sixth in field goal percentage, but its proficiency from the outside and in the long mid-range can help it make an impact here.
Draymond Green won’t play here, nor will Jonathan Kuminga and Stephen Curry’s status is currently up in the air due to an ankle sprain. That would theoretically make life a bit more difficult on the Warriors, but as bettors, it won’t affect us as much with the injuries currently baked into the line.
Golden State has had to deal with injuries for the last month or so; it has remained without Brandin Podziemski for a while with Green and Curry missing pockets of time. Its depth is once again surprisingly good, and the proof is in these recent shooting numbers.
The defense has certainly been a bit of a disaster for Golden State across the board, though it does sit second in Location Effective Field Goal Percentage — meaning if teams took the league-average number of shots at each location, it would look a lot better.
The Warriors have been victimized by a heavy dose of mid-range shots, which have gone in at a shockingly high rate, but Boston has refused to take shots from this zone and will instead focus its efforts at the rim and around the arc, where Golden State has done a great job all season long.
Overall, this line is simply too large for how well the Warriors have performed in these specific areas. They have the depth to make this happen, and they’re at home – take the points.
Celtics vs Warriors same-game parlay
Warriors +10.5
Steph Curry Over 24.5 points
Jaylen Brown Over 21.5 points
The books are offering us a line on Curry’s points total, which certainly is a good sign for his outlook here. Should he play, there’s a great matchup in front of him with the Celtics looking vulnerable at the arc and his usage should be quite high with Kuminga and Green out along with Kyle Anderson. He’s gone over this mark in three straight and six of his last seven, and he’s a sure bet for me with Andrew Wiggins looking good as the backup option.
As for the Celtics, this should be a Jaylen Brown game. His scoring has fluctuated, but we do know he’s now notched 20 or more in three of his last five with a ton of volume coming his way in an overtime loss to the Atlanta Hawks last time out.
Brown stands as the man who has the largest percentage of shots in the mid-range, where Golden State has struggled, and while the Warriors have prevented passes from going down low they have remained vulnerable at the rim and Brown will have the chance to take it in himself.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Celtics vs Warriors odds
Celtics vs Warriors live odds
Celtics vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Boston -6.5 | Golden State +6.5
- Moneyline: Boston -270 | Golden State +375
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Celtics vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has continued to push toward Boston with the injury news becoming tough for Golden State, moving more than two points on Monday.
- The Warriors make up just 52% of the tickets but 82% of the money wagered on the spread.
- The total dropped immediately upon open down to 223.5, but it hasn’t gone any lower than that with a recent correction back to 224.
- The Over has accounted for 81% of the bets on the total but just 71% of the handle.
Celtics vs Warriors trend
The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Warriors.
How to watch Celtics vs Warriors
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Celtics vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
