The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a tough opening loss to the Boston Celtics, as Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a free throw that would have sent the game to overtime. Now, the Bucks host the Golden State Warriors at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI in their home opener. The game tips off at 2:30 p.m. ET as part of what should be a Christmas Day slate that is filled with NBA betting.
When looking at picks and predictions for this one, it’s important to know that Draymond Green is not expected to suit up here. “We need his fire,” head coach Steve Kerr said after Golden State got destroyed by the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday.
Keep that in mind as we break down the NBA odds with our Warriors vs. Bucks picks and predictions for Friday, December 25.
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Warriors: Draymond Green F (Doubtful), Klay Thompson G (Out)
Bucks: D.J. Augustin G (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Bucks were 7-4 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss during last year’s regular season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Bucks.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Not only was Kerr blunt about the Warriors’ need for Draymond in the lineup, but Stephen Curry was vocal about how sloppy the team was against the Nets. Without saying it directly, Curry seemed worried about the decision-making in the rest of the starting lineup. That’s not a great sign heading into a meeting with the Bucks, who should be ready to roll after losing to the Celtics on Wednesday.
It’s always tough to be on the other side of any team that has a player of Curry’s caliber, but Giannis and Khris Middleton should really have an easy time scoring here. Last game, that duo had to go up against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, two remarkable perimeter defenders, but they’ll now be facing less-fearsome resistance in Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. Also, Jrue Holiday should feast on rookie James Wiseman in pick-and-roll situations, and Holiday should also do a decent job of making life on Curry tough on the other end.
This game could get out of hand, much like the Nets game did. However, for what it’s worth, I do expect the Warriors to bounce back in a big way once Draymond returns to action.
PREDICTION: Bucks -9.5 (-112)
Over/Under Pick
Until Draymond is back, the Warriors are going to be one of the worst defensive teams in basketball. Seriously, there isn’t a plus-level defender in their entire starting lineup at the moment, and this Bucks team is capable of creating good looks against the best defenses the NBA has to offer.
With that said, don’t be surprised if Milwaukee puts up something close to 130 in this one. That would require very little of Golden State, who should be a little better offensively than they were on Tuesday. Wiggins and Oubre can shoot better than a combined 7 for 30, can’t they?
PREDICTION: Over 232.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
While I do think Curry will have to work for his points against Holiday, it is a Christmas Day game and he’s going to want to put on a show. So, even if he doesn’t do it efficiently, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Curry put up at least 35 in this game. He’s going to be jacking up shots, so this seems like great value.
PREDICTION: Curry top points scorer (+200)
Warriors vs Bucks Betting Card
- Bucks -9.5 (-112)
- Over 232.5 (-110)
- Curry top points scorer (+200)
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