The Golden State Warriors travel north on the I-80 tonight to square off against their Pacific Division rivals.
The Sacramento Kings are all but locked into the No. 3 seed and while much is still to be decided, the Warriors have the best chance of any team in the West to finish third. That means that tonight is not only important to Golden State in terms of avoiding the play-in, but it’s also a potential first-round series preview.
Despite their bizarro world season, many people, if not most, would pick the Warriors to upset the Kings in that series. Tonight's contest is a chance for Sacramento to make it clear that it shouldn’t be counted out so quickly.
Our NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Kings are betting on Golden State’s heightened motivation to win to be the deciding factor in Friday’s game.
Warriors vs Kings best odds
Warriors vs Kings picks and predictions
As we saw with many of the games that took place yesterday, the key to betting the spread this time of the season chiefly lies in parsing motivation. While on its face, it might have seen reasonable to bet 76ers -5 against an infuriatingly inconsistent Heat team, but it was clear five minutes into the game that Miami had something to play for and Philly simply did not.
In that same vein, how motivated will the Sacramento Kings be to win this game against the Golden State Warriors? Per PlayoffStatus.com, the Kings have a 92% chance to finish in the third seed, narrowly behind the Grizzlies. They’re all but locked into place, with potentially more to lose in terms of injury or accident if they commit to playing spoiler against the Dubs.
At the time of writing, every Kings starter not named Harrison Barnes has been listed as questionable for Friday’s game, most with ailments of dubious nature that more or less amount to rest.
While I'd be surprised if the Kings ultimately throw the game completely from the outset, it’s also not out of the question. Even if some or all of the Sacramento starters do suit up, I’d expect them to play no more than a half of semi-serious basketball. Even against a team seemingly cursed to fail on the road, tonight’s scenario favors the Warriors heavily.
Further working in the Warriors' favor is that they’ve been off since Tuesday. Two full days of rest and minimal travel should mitigate at least the most obvious disadvantages that plague a typical team playing on the road. The Warriors have also posted the sixth-best point differential in the NBA over the last two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass.
It’s a testament to the Kings' success and the Warrior's road ineptitude that whether to lay this line is even a question this season, but the incentives just so strongly favor Golden State.
My best bet: Warriors -4.5 (-111 at BetVictor)
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Warriors vs Kings spread analysis
By now, we all know that the Warriors' road record this season — both straight up and against the spread — has been almost historically poor. Naturally, the trends aren’t overly optimistic indicators of their chances on Friday.
The Warriors are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win, as well as 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 road games. One of the key problems that have dogged the Warriors all season long has been a lack of reliable bench production.
That problem was only heightened by the extended absence of Andrew Wiggins, who remains out for the rest of the regular season. However, the Warriors have received some late reinforcements in the form of Gary Payton II.
GP2 has been back for five games now and his defensive impact has been immediate. Just having another player that Steve Kerr can rely on for 15-20 minutes at a time has a knock-on effect that should make the Warriors quite a bit better.
The Kings, meanwhile, have some strong indicators, including a 4-1 record ATS in their last five games. Importantly though, they’ve struggled more at home, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six at Golden 1 Center, but again, the important thing is that it’s hard to see how the Kings will be able to match Golden State’s motivation to win this one.
Warriors vs Kings Over/Under analysis
Despite the best intentions of odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year winner Mike Brown, Sacramento’s defense never got close to respectable this season.
While they’ve avoided the absolute basement of the Association, they’re going to finish with a Bottom-10 defense. Having said that, the Kings have been so consistently excellent on offense, they’re still on their way to their best season in nearly two decades. That offense has been particularly potent at home, which has contributed to the Over going 25-11-1 in the Kings' last 37 home games.
In previous years, the Warriors' defense would present a stiff challenge even to this version of the Kings, but that's not as likely this season. The one thing that we know for sure at this stage of what has been a supremely strange Warriors season is that their defense does not travel.
The road Warriors have one of the worst defenses in the NBA, continuing and exacerbating a trend that began last season. The Over is 34-15-2 in Golden State’s last 51 road games in part due to this inexplicable dropoff.
Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know
The Over is 25-11-1 in the Kings' last 37 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.
Warriors vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Friday, April 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Bay Area, NBCS-California |
