The Golden State Warriors are still among the NBA Championship favorites, but they're riding a four-game losing streak as they head to the Rocky Mountains for a Monday night meeting with the Denver Nuggets.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 10-2 in their last 12 games, have really found a rhythm in the second half, and are nearly double-digit NBA betting favorites tonight as the Dubs will also be without, well, all of their key players.
Will Denver stay hot against a Golden State team that has really lost its way recently? Keep reading our free NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Nuggets to find out.
Warriors vs Nuggets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Nuggets opened as 8.5-point favorites but has since gone down to -8, with some books showing -7.5, at the time of writing. The total, which opened at 223, has dipped down to 221.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Nuggets predictions
- Prediction: Nuggets -7.5 (-120)
- Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Poole Over 22.5 points (-115)
Predictions made on 3/7/2022 at 11:02 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Altitude, NBC Sports Bay Area
Warriors vs Nuggets betting preview
Key injuries
Warriors: Steph Curry G (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out), Draymond Green F (Out), Andrew Wiggins F (Out), Gary Payton II (Out), Andre Iguodala F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Nuggets: Jamal Murray G (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Nuggets.
Warriors vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Warriors are going to be resting Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Steph Curry tonight, so it doesn’t exactly matter thay the Nuggets are playing on the second half of a back-to-back.
Denver, which has already won and covered twice against Golden State this season, is capable of hanging around with a full-strength Warriors team — but as things currently stand, the Nuggets are in a prime position to earn an easy victory here — assuming they don’t hold anybody out at the last minute.
The Warriors have covered just two of 13 games in the second half and they’re 6-9 ATS when facing Northwest Division opponents this season. Golden State is also 6-7 SU and ATS as a road underdog this year, and it just doesn't have much of a lineup to overcome a very good Denver team tonight.
The Nuggets will dominate the paint with Nikola Jokic not having anybody to worry about on the Warriors' side. Meanwhile, Denver will also have the advantage in the backcourt against Golden State, which will be leaning on... Jordan Poole? Damion Lee? Moses Moody?
For that reason, this one should get ugly. The Nuggets aren’t the type of team to mess around.
Prediction: Nuggets -7.5 (-120)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head matchups between these two teams, and it had hit in five straight games before these two went Over on February 16.
This game will, however, be a lot different than previous ones, as the Warriors are not going to have their best players in this one, leaving Poole and Jonathan Kuminga to carry the offensive load. Both players are capable of having a good night but this offense isn’t going to operate at its usual high level — and it's been somewhat disappointing lately... even at full strength.
The Nuggets generally play at a slow pace anyway, as the offensive runs through its center (aka the reigning MVP) in Jokic and lets him do almost all of the playmaking.
The Under is also 5-2 in Golden State's last seven games against teams with winning records, and that's how we're leaning tonight.
Prediction: Under 223.5 (-110)
Best bet
Poole is averaging 16.3 points per game on the year but has scored 23 points in each of his last two contests, and he’ll now get a chance to run the show tonight against the Nuggets.
With Curry, Wiggins, and Thompson out, the Warriors are going to be counting on Poole to create a lot of the team's offense. The 22-year-old guard already has five 30-point games this season, and there’s no reason he can’t turn in that type of effort against Denver here.
Poole had 15 points in the most recent meeting with the Nuggets back in mid-February, a game that saw Curry and Thompson combining to take 34 shots.
Without those guys in the lineup, Poole should be able to fire away and help bettors cash their player props.
Pick: Jordan Poole Over 22.5 points (-115)
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