The NBA Cup quarterfinals have pitted arguably the NBA’s best perimeter defense against the best perimeter scorer in NBA history.
The Houston Rockets do not give up open looks from long range, and my NBA picks for Wednesday, December 11 focus on how Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors will be kept in check.
Best Warriors vs Rockets props for tonight
Curry Under 24.5 points (-105 at bet365)- Hield Under 2.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
- Curry Under 5.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-11
Warriors vs Rockets player props for December 11
Prop bet #1: Steph Curry Under 24.5 points
The Golden State Warriors may be off to a strong start this season at 14-9, but their offensive rating is still middling, sitting No. 15 in the NBA on the year.
Frankly, that was mostly because of a strong start. In the last month, Golden State’s offensive rating has plummeted to No. 27, a drop so far it cannot be entirely attributed to twice playing the Timberwolves (No. 4 defensive rating in the last month).
That drop-off has impacted even Steph Curry. In the last month, he has fallen short of this rather modest prop in seven of 11 games.
The Warriors simply do not have enough offensive options to keep the defensive focus off their best player, and the Houston Rockets have a bounty of perimeter defenders to make Curry’s life miserable in this NBA Cup quarterfinal.
Prop bet #2: Buddy Hield Under 2.5 threes
Houston’s greatest strength is its ability to limit looks from deep. The Rockets give up only 36.4 3-point attempts per game, No. 6 in the NBA. That is impressive enough, but the shocking stat is that Houston allows opponents to make just 32.2% of their threes, leading the NBA.
No. 2 in the league is the Grizzlies’ defense at 33.1%. It is as close to No. 4 as it is to the Rockets at No. 1. Houston is that far and away ahead of the NBA in 3-point defense this season.
Tough break, Buddy Hield. The sharpshooter is making 3.3 threes per game this season and just 1.8 two-pointers. He has one tool in his belt this year, and that is the exact tool that the Rockets stymie.
Prop bet #3: Steph Curry Under 5.5 assists
Continue trusting Houston’s defense. It gives up just 21.6 assists per game, again well ahead of the rest of the NBA. There is some distinct correlation there: If opponents are missing 3-pointers, they are also failing many potential assists.
There is only one Warrior with an assists prop north of 3 but with the Under at even money. Thinking Curry will get six assists when the Rockets tend to not even give up 22 is bold.
Furthermore, this NBA Cup quarterfinal may induce tension. If this game remains as close as its 2-point spread expects, Curry is more likely to be taking shots himself than to be moving the ball around.
Doubting Golden State’s offense may not be the most enticing venture, but it has been the correct decision in the last month, just like it has been the correct choice to back Houston’s defense all season long.
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