Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Steph Curry has a way of coming through in the biggest moments, and with a spot in the NBA Cup semifinals on the line tonight, our NBA picks expect him to shine.

Tom Oldfield - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tom Oldfield • Betting Analyst
Dec 11, 2024 • 11:52 ET • 4 min read

NBA

Match starts: 6 hrs
HOU
46 %
GS
54 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Stephen Curry o24.5  Points Scored (-115) Stephen Curry o24.5 Points Scored (-115)
Read Analysis
Steph Curry Golden State Warriors NBA
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Steph Curry drives to the rim against Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels.

Veteran savvy meets upstart grit in tonight’s NBA Cup quarterfinal between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets, with a trip to the final four in Las Vegas on the line.

Golden State has owned this matchup in recent years, winning the last 10 meetings, and my Warriors vs Rockets predictions point to Steph Curry putting on a show in H-Town.

However, my NBA picks also make the case for Houston in this December 11 clash — and don’t be surprised if the Rockets have the last laugh.

Warriors vs Rockets prediction

My best bet
Steph Curry Over 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)

My analysis
The NBA Cup knockout games provide an in-season playoff vibe, with bright lights and extra tension. In that environment, who better than Steph Curry to rise to the occasion?

While it’s felt like a more erratic shooting season for Curry, who’s down to 23 ppg, he’s still making his 3-pointers at a 42% clip and attempting 10 triples a night. I see him embracing the challenge of keeping the Golden State Warriors afloat on the road against this feisty Houston Rockets team, and I’m taking the Over on his points prop at Toyota Center.

We’re a long way removed from the peak of this matchup when the loaded Warriors were taking on James Harden and Chris Paul, but Curry is still the main man. He’s coming off a 30-point outing in Sunday’s win over the Timberwolves, and he breezed past this O/U number twice against the Rockets last season.

While Houston has an array of gritty defenders, opposite number Fred VanVleet has been dealing with a knee injury. That may make Curry’s night easier — and he’s sure to target Alperen Sengun, questionable with a knee issue, on switches.

Curry has been content to share the touches in a Golden State rotation that regularly goes 11 deep, with his workload dipping to 30.5 mpg, but this is a win-or-go-home scenario with a chance to reach the semifinals in Vegas. That feels like a recipe for more of a Game 7 minutes load and 20+ shots.

It doesn’t take much to get Steph going, and he could cruise to this Over if early 3-pointers drop in.

Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay

Steph Curry Over 24.5 points

Jabari Smith Over 7.5 rebounds

Rockets moneyline

Whether it’s Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, or Jonathan Kuminga, the Warriors are a force on the boards. In fact, these two teams rank first (Houston) and second (Golden State) in rebounds per game this year. It’ll be all hands on deck in the paint for the Rockets, and Ime Udoka is going to need Jabari Smith Jr. to be active, especially if Sengun is limited.

Smith pulled down 12 rebounds in the win over the Clippers at the weekend, and he’s racked up 40 boards across his last four contests. I like the Over on a generous 7.5 O/U line tonight.

Despite my high hopes for Curry’s production tonight, I’m leaning towards the Rockets grinding out a win, overcoming their losing stretch against the Warriors. Houston has posted a 6-3 mark across its last nine games, and Jalen Green came alive with 31 points to sink the Clippers.

VanVleet’s expected return is huge for the hosts, while Golden State’s chances of halting a three-game road skid take a hit if Andrew Wiggins is ruled out again.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Warriors vs Rockets odds

Warriors vs Rockets live odds

Warriors vs Rockets opening odds

  • Spread: Golden State +2.5 | Houston -2.5
  • Moneyline: Golden State +120 | Houston -140
  • Over/Under: Over 221 | Under 221

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis

  • At 16-8, the Rockets are making a statement in the crowded Western Conference and enter as slight favorites here in part thanks to a 9-3 mark at Toyota Center.

  • The Warriors have won 24 of their last 34 games away from Chase Center, but they’ve been held to 105 points or fewer in four of their past six contests overall.

  • Though the Under is 8-2 in Golden State’s past 10 games, Houston has hit the Over in five of its last six contests and in 26 of its last 41 outings.

  • The Rockets lead the NBA in field goal attempts per game (94.4), while the Warriors rank fourth.

Warriors vs Rockets trend

The Rockets are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.

How to watch Warriors vs Rockets

Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Date: Wednesday, 12-11-2024
Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries

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Tom Oldfield - Covers
Betting Analyst

Tom Oldfield’s sports writing journey over the past 20 years has taken him from the Premier League and Champions League to the NFL, NBA, WNBA and MLB, with a wide range of articles and betting previews. Tom has worked closely with London’s Sportsbeat sports news agency as well as (thrillingly!) covering the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 NBA championship run, and he has appeared on BBC World Service and The Back Page podcast.

A graduate of the University of Nottingham in the UK, he is the author of biographies on Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Nadal, Gary Neville and Cesc Fabregas, and he co-authors a long-running series of children’s soccer books with his brother, Matt.

As a regular bettor across the top sports leagues, particularly with FanDuel and bet365, he is well versed on all the major markets and the next big game is rarely far from his thoughts. The best betting advice he has received is to monitor multiple sportsbooks to grab the best possible value.

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