The two teams with the best records in basketball meet on Christmas Day, when the Phoenix Suns host the Golden State Warriors in what just might be a preview of the Western Conference Finals.
Will Phoenix easily take care of a Golden State team that is currently without Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson and James Wiseman? Continue reading for our Warriors vs. Suns NBA picks and predictions for Christmas Day, December 25.
Warriors vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Warriors were 3.5-point underdogs when this game first became available, but they’re now getting either 5.5 or 6. The total, which was originally slated to be 228, dropped drastically with the latest round of injury news, with the number going to 217.5 and staying put there.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Warriors vs Suns predictions
Predictions made on 12/24/2021 at 12:55 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Warriors vs Suns game info
• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
• Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Warriors vs Suns betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), Damion Lee G (Out), Andrew Wiggins F (Out), Jordan Poole G (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out).
Suns: Frank Kaminsky C (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 18-7 against the spread in their last 25 home games versus teams with winning road records. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.
Warriors vs Suns picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Warriors and Suns have met twice already this season, with the home team winning and covering in both games. Phoenix is the team that will have the home-court advantage in this one, and the atmosphere should be electric with this being such a marquee game on Christmas Day. The fans will surely fuel the Suns in this one, and it doesn’t hurt that the Warriors are missing quite a few key players here.
In two meetings with the Suns this season, Poole averaged 21.0 points per game and 1.5 steals per game. His scoring ability will really be missed, as it’s going to put a ton of pressure on Steph Curry to go above and beyond as a scorer. Even Wiggins’ 18.7 points per game this season is something that is hard to replicate for bench players, and it doesn’t help that the Suns are second in the league in defensive rating. Phoenix should have a plan to stop this Golden State offense, and a big part of that plan could be throwing Mikal Bridges on Curry. Bridges is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball.
Defensively, the Warriors are going to be hurting without having Wiggins out there. The 26-year-old has turned into one of the team’s best defenders, and his absence will be felt against a Suns offense that is operating at an extremely high level right now. Phoenix resembles a lot of the San Antonio teams that Gregg Popovich won titles with, as the Suns move the ball around a lot and have a number of different players that can be counted on offensively.
Overall, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if this game ended up being rather uncompetitive. These teams are very evenly matched when both are at full strength, but that is far from the case here.
Prediction: Suns -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Warriors and Suns each have a lot of offensive talent to work with, even with a lot of players out of commission heading into this game. Still, these are the two teams in the league with the highest defensive ratings, with Golden State sitting in first and Phoenix not far behind in second.
And while the Warriors do have a couple of key defensive pieces missing, Draymond Green will still be out there for Golden State. That means that this will be a good defensive team no matter what. Meanwhile, Phoenix has most of its key players on that end of the floor, and the defensive assignment will be a bit easier for the Suns against a banged-up opponent.
Both of the meetings between these teams that we’ve seen this year have gone Under the total, and the Under has also hit in eight of the last nine meetings between them. Also, the Under is 43-20 when Golden State is a road underdog of 6 or less points under head coach Steve Kerr.
Prediction: Under 217.5 (-110)
Best bet
Not only are the Warriors overmatched in the talent department heading into this game, but there’s also just little evidence to support that the Suns are going to let this one slip away at the Footprint Center. Over the last two seasons, Phoenix is 37-22 against the spread when playing as a home favorite, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. Phoenix is also 15-2 straight-up at home this year, and 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread over its last five games.
If that’s not enough, the Suns are also 7-0 against the spread when avenging a loss against an opponent this year. And just for good measure, the team is also 30-12 against the spread when avenging a loss of 10 or more points since Monty Williams took over as the team’s head coach.
Pick: Suns -5.5 (-110)
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