The Minnesota Timberwolves might be only two games up on the Golden State Warriors in the NBA standings, but that feels like a gulf given the trend lines between the two. Tonight’s spread emphasizes that gulf, favoring Minnesota by six points.
But these free NBA picks will not focus on that spread, but rather my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions recognize a recent change in Minnesota’s approach. Tip comes at 9:30pm ET on Wednesday, January 15.
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 made threes (-155 at bet365)
My analysis
When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks just before preseason practices began, the understandable and broad reaction was to focus on Julius Randle’s fit with Minnesota. It has been a tenuous, if still improving, fit.
But the quieter piece of the trade was the piece that the Timberwolves insisted upon, Donte DiVincenzo. Randle is likely a one-year piece in the Twin Cities, while DiVincenzo could be there for three full seasons, all at excellent value.
Minnesota wanted DiVincenzo not only for his quality of shooting but also for his quantity of shooting. Towns already provided quality as the best-shooting center of all time. But DiVincenzo took 10.8 threes per 36 minutes last season, making 40.1% of them. That kind of combination could unlock new heights for the Timberwolves’ offense centered around Anthony Edwards.
But that quantity fell to 8.6 threes attempted per 36 minutes in a 19-game stretch that saw Minnesota also go 9-10. Not all of that dismal record lay at DiVincenzo’s feet, but his reluctance to chuck did not help things.
So the Timberwolves put him into the starting lineup, and they have gone 4-1 since. DiVincenzo is back to shooting, taking 10.8 threes per 36 minutes in this stretch and at least seven in each of the five games, all while making 40% of them.
This is the player Minnesota sought. And sportsbooks have not properly adjusted to his revival.
With Edwards and Randle initiating more of the offense when in lineups without Mike Conley, DiVincenzo gets more shooting opportunities. And he has the greenest of green lights.
Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 made threes
Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 assists
Timberwolves moneyline
There are ripple effects to DiVincenzo replacing Conley in the lineup, and one of them is Edwards handles the ball that much more. He and Conley still overlap some, but nowhere near as much. As a result, Edwards has had at least six assists in four of these five games.
The DiVincenzo-for-Conley swap will not solve all of Minnesota’s ills this season, but until further notice, it should warrant enough faith to take the Timberwolves on the moneyline. They lost as short favorites to the Grizzlies on Saturday, a two-point defeat, hardly a dooming result when considering the short-term success of this lineup change.
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +5.5 | Minnesota -5.5
- Moneyline: Golden State +185 | Minnesota -225
- Over/Under: Over 215.0 | Under 215.0
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Timberwolves opened as 5.5-point favorites on Tuesday evening and peaked at -6.5 early on Wednesday before settling at -6 before the East Coast workday began.
- The total opened at 215 on Tuesday evening and hardly moved, reaching for 216 during the overnight and returning to 215 before anyone had woken up to notice.
- Neither team has an inherent rest advantage, though it warrants noting this is the fourth game in a four-game road trip for the Warriors.
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
Four straight Golden State games have gone Under their totals and by an average of 14.4 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-15-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, FDSN NO, NBAC |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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