Wizards vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Bam Bounces Back

Coming off their first win since January 29, the Washington Wizards will have to deal with a Miami Heat team on an 11-5 stretch and trying to climb into the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Given the Wizards had lost 16 straight before beating the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, the NBA odds have Miami as an 11.5-point home favorite. The win was nice for the Wizards, but it only gets tougher against this loaded Heat starting lineup.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Heat on Sunday, March 10.

Wizards vs Heat odds

Wizards vs Heat predictions

The Washington Wizards' struggles have been well-documented this season. The team is coming off a monumentally poor stretch and sits with the Detroit Pistons as a bottom feeder in the Eastern Conference at 10-53.

The team fired head coach Wes Unseld after a 7-53 start and interim head coach Brian Keefe hasn’t gotten the Wizards playing much better at 3-17 since he took over. While their offense has had its moments, led by Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole, the defense is the definition of atrocious.

Washington ranks dead last in both defensive rating (120.2) and points allowed per game (124.2). Going against this defense is almost like a tune-up game for Eastern Conference contenders who want to be at their best against the real challengers.

That’s why this game comes at a perfect time for the Miami Heat after two straight road losses and center Bam Adebayo coming off a five-point performance. 

“We'll get better from this," Spoelstra said after losses. "There were a lot of good things to take away. None of us want to talk about (the positives) right now because we're competitors. But by the time we get back to Miami, even the head coach can see good things happening in our locker room.”

Already set for a bounce-back game against Washington, Adebayo has a juicy matchup with the Wizards being down starting center Marvin Bagley III. With Bagley out due to a back injury, Richaun Holmes will start at center.

It will be Holmes' fifth start over the last two seasons and he’ll have his hands full with Adebayo coming off his third All-Star appearance, averaging 19.9 points per game. Expect the former first-round pick out of Kentucky to turn in one of his best performances of the year against the Wiz and top his 20.5-point total for the game.

Not only does Adebayo get to take on the league’s most abysmal defense, and a backup big man, but Washington has been at its worst against centers this season. The Wizards allow the most points per game to centers (26.63) and the second-most points in the paint per game (59.2).

That will give Adebayo a chance to explode on the offensive end with the Heat center doing the majority of his damage around the rim. He’s shooting 51.6% from inside the arc and leads the Heat in both paint touches (7.3) and paint points per game (6.3).

Beyond working down low to bully this Wizards defense, Adebayo can take advantage of Washington’s issues defending 2-pointers. The Wizards allow the second-most 2-point attempts (59.6) and makes (34.2) with teams shooting the second-highest 2-point percentage against them (57.5%).

Between Washington’s issues in the paint and the 2-point range, Adebayo is the perfect type of big to take advantage. He has the second-highest usage rate on the Heat (25.5%) and is second in field-goal attempts per game (15) while getting to the free-throw line at the second-highest rate (6.1 attempts per game).

This matchup should allow for the 26-year-old to turn in his 30th game of at least 21 points this season.

My best bet: Bam Adebayo Over 20.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Wizards vs Heat same-game parlay

Bam Adebayo Over 20.5 points

Bam Adebayo double-double

Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 points

+400 at bet365

With Adebayo struggling in his previous game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he’s in for a treat against the Wizards. Not only do the Wizards allow the most points in the NBA to centers, but they allow the most rebounds, too (18.39).

That opens Adebayo up for an opportunity to finish with a double-double, something the Heat big has averaged all season (19.9 points and 10.3 rebounds). He’s already finished with a double-double 31 times, including a Feb. 2 win over the Wizards.

In that same game, Jimmy Butler put up 24 points and went 7-for-10 from the floor. He’s in for an equally efficient game against the Wizards with this defense allowing the second most points to small forwards in the NBA (23.25).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wizards vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite the Wizards finally winning a game, the Heat opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and the line has ballooned to between -11 and -11.5. 

While the Heat are in playoff position, they’re just 31-31-1 against the spread this season. However, Miami has been on a hot streak of late, going 12-4 ATS. The Wizards aren’t much worse this season ATS at 29-33-1, but have covered just three times in the last nine games. Washington covered the +7.5-point spread in its previous game with Miami.

The game total opened as high as 232.5, but has quickly come down to between 228.5 and 229 at most books. The Heat have been the worst Over teams in the league this season at 24-39. Washington is slightly better at 31-31-1 betting the Over. With the game total at 228 the last time these two played, the Under hit.

Wizards vs Heat betting trend to know

The Wizards have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 79 games (-43.15 Units / -47% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Heat.

Wizards vs Heat game info

Wizards vs Heat latest injuries

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