With the countdown to college basketball conference tournaments ticking, we get treated to a doozy of an SEC matchup as the first-place Alabama Crimson Tide visit the second-place Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Razorbacks will be out for revenge after the Tide spanked them by 31 points back in January. But the Hogs have won seven of their past eight and are 2-point favorites this time around.
Here are our best free No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 20 Arkansas picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Wednesday, February 24, with tipoff at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview
Injuries
Alabama: Juwan Gary F (Out), Alex Tchikou F (Out).
Arkansas: Abayomi Iyiola F (Out), Khalen Robinson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between Alabama and Arkansas. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Arkansas.
NCAAB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonArkansas bounced between -1 and -1.5 a few times at PointsBet USA, then got to -2 this afternoon, and the line is still -2 as of 6 p.m. ET. However, ticket count is 4/1 and money 2/1 on underdog Alabama. The total initially dipped from 156 to 154.5, then surged to 158 this afternoon, with 72 percent of bets/79 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, Alabama thoroughly thumped Arkansas 90-59 as 2.5-point favorites back on Jan. 16, but a lot has changed for the Razorbacks since then. The Hogs have won four in a row, and are coming off a solid 75-64 win over Florida. And although the last meeting doesn’t show that, Arkansas has the offense to keep up with Alabama.
The Razorbacks have put up 74 or more points over their last eight games and lead the SEC in scoring margin. They have done that by being super-efficient when it comes to scoring on the inside, and are an excellent rebounding team. The only problem is that Alabama is the SEC’s top team for a reason.
The Crimson Tide can not only compete with the Razorbacks on the offensive end, but they also own one of the best defenses in the country. Alabama is second in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the KenPom ratings. Bama is particularly tough on the perimeter, where they allow opponents to shoot just 29.2 percent from 3-point range. That will be the difference in this game.
While Arkansas will keep up with Alabama thanks to its play on the inside, the Tide will make some big shots late, while locking down the Hogs on the other end, in a game that should have plenty of fireworks.
PREDICTION: Alabama +2 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this matchup hit the board at 155.5 and bettors hammered the Over, moving the line all the way to 158.5. That isn’t surprising when you consider these are not only two of the most explosive offenses in the SEC, but in the country as well.
Arkansas averages 82.5 points per game this season, while Alabama is just behind at 80.9. The Tide have cashed the Over in three straight games while putting up 78 or more points in seven of their last 10. The Over is 4-1 in the Hogs’ last five games against a team with a straight-up winning record.
This game should be a back-and-forth affair and that has us jumping on the bandwagon of bettors and leaning toward the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 158.5 (-110)
Alabama vs Arkansas betting card
- Alabama +2 (-110)
- Over 158.5 (-110)
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