Arkansas State and North Texas will attempt to secure a spot in the 2025 NIT quarterfinals when the teams meet on Sunday night at The Super Pit in Denton.
The Red Wolves won 25 games this season behind a strong defense and a favorable schedule. But the Mean Green force teams to defend for a full 30 seconds while defending extremely well themselves, and have performed better against high-quality opponents.
My Arkansas State vs. North Texas predictions and free college basketball picks for Sunday, March 23 explain how dictating the pace will be the key to the home team getting the victory.
Who will win Arkansas State vs North Texas?
North Texas plays better defense, is a superior rebounding side, and defends the perimeter extremely well. The Mean Green have also performed much better against strong competition, while Arkansas State won 16 of its 25 games by beating Quad-4 opponents. The Red Wolves simply won’t have enough to get the job done on the road.
Arkansas State vs North Texas prediction
My best bet: North Texas -4 (-110 at bet365)
What do Rice, Hofstra, James Madison, and South Alabama have in common with North Texas? If you guessed that all those teams play at a snail’s pace, you win the prize. Which is…well…sorry, I don’t have one.
What I do have is a recipe for the Mean Green to do another thing all four of those teams managed — defeat Arkansas State. Rice, who is ranked 280th in tempo on the season, is the only one of those schools ranked better than 300th in the metric, and if North Texas dictates the pace it’ll cause similar problems for the Red Wolves.
That’s because Arkansas State thrives on playing in a track meet. The Red Wolves rank 53rd in adjusted tempo and rely on solid defense turning into transition opportunities to fire from deep. And they need a high volume of long-range efforts, as they rank 251st in three-point shooting percentage despite being 60th in three-point rate.
In many ways, these teams mirror one another in their strengths and weaknesses. Both rely on solid defense, each ranking in the Top 20 in three-point % defense and Top 30 in effective FG% defense. They also both have a tendency to foul, each allowing opponents to get to the line on more than 37% of their possessions. And they both hit the offensive glass to get second-chance opportunities.
But there are a few key areas where North Texas will win this game and cover the spread. The first is the charity stripe. The Mean Green rank 80th in FT rate on offense, and are Top 25 nationally at taking advantage with a 77.8% make rate. On the flip side, the Red Wolves convert on just 72.7% of their trips and are slightly above average in getting to the line.
The other area is on the glass. Arkansas State ranks 210th in defensive rebound rate, while the Mean Green pulls down one of every three shots they miss. That’s part of the reason why Arkansas State’s opponents have scored nearly 39% of their points from close range.
North Texas will have a size advantage in this contest. The Red Wolves have just one major contributor taller than 6’8” while the Mean Green trio of Moulaye Sissoko, Brenen Lorient, and Grant Newell all stand 6’9”. Lorient has a block rate of 6.3% this season, while the three of them combined to grab more than 30% of available offensive boards.
Arkansas State was forced to play at a slow pace in conference play by James Madison and South Alabama, and in road games at each school managed to score just 62 points in each contest. That includes a 12-of-49 performance from deep against South Alabama, which they followed up by making just six of 31 attempts in the home meeting.
The Mean Green will get free points at the line, force the Red Wolves to operate in the halfcourt, and limit quality looks with a defense ranked 55th in spacing according to ShotQuality. Add in the second-chance opportunities, and the home team will win by 5+ points.
Arkansas State vs North Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
North Texas -4
North Texas team total Under 32.5 — 1H
Arkansas State team total Under 66.5
North Texas tends to perform much better offensively after halftime than before, averaging seven more points after the break than prior to it. Arkansas State also allows five fewer points in the first half on average. Given that the Mean Green average just 30.4 points before halftime, and their opponents are allowing less than 33 in the opening 20 minutes on average, I like the North Texas first half Under.
The teams I mentioned earlier played Arkansas State a total of six times. Aside from a 74-71 win over South Alabama in the Sunbelt Tournament, the Red Wolves managed just 67 points once and averaged 62.6 points in those five contests. Only two teams allow fewer than the 60.3 points per game given up by North Texas, and that defense will keep the visitors below their team total.
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Arkansas State vs North Texas odds
Arkansas State vs North Texas live odds
Arkansas State vs North Texas opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas State +4.5 | North Texas -4.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +152 | North Texas -179
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas State vs North Texas betting trend to know
North Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas State vs. North Texas.
How to watch Arkansas State vs North Texas
| Location | The Super Pit, Denton, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
Arkansas State vs North Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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