The college basketball game of the year takes place in Tuscaloosa this Saturday, where the No. 2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 1 Auburn Tigers.
Not only is this a rivalry game, but it's the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in SEC history, and my Auburn vs. Alabama predictions are siding with the home team.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on February 15.
Auburn vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Alabama ML (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
Every analyst and college hoops fan has been scrutinizing this matchup between the 22-2 Auburn Tigers and the 21-3 Alabama Crimson Tide, who have the two highest-rated offenses in the country. That said, I'm a bit surprised that more people aren't talking about the fact that two of Auburn's best players are less than 100 percent.
Wooden Award candidate Johni Broome sprained his ankle against South Carolina on January 11, an injury that can take up to six weeks to fully heal. He's admitted to being less than full strength and has shot just 42.7% from 2-point range since the injury (compared to 63.1 2PT% before).
Chad Baker-Mazara (12.2 ppg) is also "banged up" and in need of rest, according to coach Bruce Pearl. Baker-Mazara scored six points in just 19 minutes in last week's loss to Florida and went 0-6 from the field in Tuesday's game in Vanderbilt.
In addition, the perceived defensive gap between these teams isn't as big as the narrative suggests. Both teams are actually tied for second in the SEC in opponent effective field goal percentage (46.7%) during conference play.
The Tigers have also seen a steep drop-off in their defensive play away from home, where they allow an eFG% of 49.6% (compared to 40.1% in The Jungle).
Sure, the Tigers force more turnovers than Bama, but Auburn struggles on the defensive glass and fouls too much. The Tigers are just 14th in the conference in defensive rebounding rate during SEC play while ranking 280th in the country in opponent free throw rate (26.7%), surging to 29.4% on the road.
The Tide is second in the conference in offensive rebounding rate and fourth among all high-major schools in free throw rate (29.5%), so they'll be able to exploit those flaws.
With Auburn's top two scorers at less than 100 percent and struggling to finish around the rim, the Tigers won't be able to go blow-for-blow with Alabama's relentless attack. Especially when you factor in the home-court advantage for the Tide.
Auburn vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Alabama ML
Miles Kelly Over 11.5 points
Grant Nelson Over 6.5 rebounds
The O/U for this game is at a towering 172.5 due to the offensive firepower that both teams possess and the blazing-fast tempo that Alabama plays.
While I'm wary about playing the Over in a total this high, I like the Over on several player props, including the Over 11.5 points for Auburn guard Miles Kelly.
Kelly is coming off a quiet performance against Vanderbilt, but the senior has dropped 13+ points in seven of his last 10 games. With Alabama 318th in the country in scoring defense (78.5 ppg allowed), Kelly should get plenty of chances to put the ball in the hoop.
Grant Nelson leads Bama with 8.1 rebounds per game and has pulled down 7+ boards in 19 of his 22 starts. Expect him to get lots of work on the offensive glass, with Auburn boxing out poorly on defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Auburn vs Alabama odds
Auburn vs Alabama live odds
Auburn vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Auburn +1.5 | Alabama -1.5
- Moneyline: Auburn +110 | Alabama -130
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 | Under 172.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Auburn vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Alabama.
How to watch Auburn vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, 2-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Auburn vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
