Auburn vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Two Great Offenses, Two Suspect Defenses

The madness of college basketball is officially back and two teams that lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament will be taking the court tonight at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Baylor is coming off a 23-11 season and returning just one starter, though it does add its highest-ranked recruit in program history in five-star Ja'Kobe Walter, while Auburn is back after going 21-13 last year. The Tigers bring back a little more experience, which must be why the college basketball odds have them as just two-point underdogs against the No. 20 Bears. 

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Baylor on Tuesday, November 7.

Auburn vs Baylor best odds

Auburn vs Baylor picks and predictions

While neither of these programs is expected to make a major splash this March, they’re both set up well to do damage in their respective conferences and to put up points in their opening game of the season. The Over 145 is definitely in play.

Even in a down year by Baylor’s standards, the Bears averaged 77 points per game and featured an effective offense. Their defense was their downfall, giving up 70.3 per game, 186th in the country. 

Despite defensive struggles, the Bears are well-positioned on offense, bringing back starter Jalen Bridges as the leader and adding the upside of Ja'Kobe Walter and guards RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn via the transfer portal. 

Even with many new faces in the green and gold, head coach Scott Drew is excited about what this lineup can do this season.

"There's an excitement of so much newness," Drew said. "You've got a lot of different pieces out there, a lot of potential. As a coach, you're always excited about working with guys that you haven't had a chance with, seeing how much you can improve them and help them."

Bridges is coming off a season where he averaged 10.3 per game and shot 50.6% from the field. He’s in a position to juice those numbers this year and was even named to the preseason watch list for the 2024 Julius Erving Award, the annual award that recognizes the best small forward in Division I men's basketball. 

Adding Dennis to the Bears rotation is what might make things really exciting in Waco this season. The Toledo transfer was the MAC Player of the Year last season and averaged 19.5 points and 5.8 assists per game while adding a little something from behind the arc hitting 36% of his threes.

Joining him in the backcourt is Nunn, a VCU transfer who was All-Freshman in the A-10 two seasons ago and averaged 9.3 points per game while connecting on an eyebrow-raising 40% of his threes.

Meanwhile, Walter is a projected lottery pick and was named Preseason Big 12 Freshman of the Year. The McKinney, Texas native was a McDonald’s All-American last year and chose the Bears over Auburn.

Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl wasn’t upset for long about missing out on Walter after pulling a five-star of his own to the Plains.

Auburn is adding freshman Aden Holloway, a 2023 McDonald's All-American, to a veteran lineup with the young gun expected to start at point guard right away.

The 16th-ranked recruit in the 2023 class, and grandson of former CFL All-Star Dave Raimey, Holloway averaged 18.5 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game during his final season of high school basketball at Prolific Prep in California.

Holloway is joining an Auburn starting five led by center Johni Broome and forward Jaylin Williams. Broome was All-SEC second-team last year after leading Auburn with 14.2 PPG and 8.4 rebounds and Williams is the top returning three-point shooter taking 3.4 per game at 35%.

Last season, Pearl’s team was scoring 72.8 per game and with another year under Broome and Williams’ belt, plus the playmaking of Holloway, that number should go up. It also helps that the Tigers were 104th in points allowed last season at 67.7.

Two offenses getting an injection of five-star talent and two defenses that were subpar at best last year should lead to plenty of points.

My best bet: Over 144.5 (-110 at bet365)

Auburn vs Baylor same-game parlay

Over 145.5

Jaylin Williams Over 12.5 points

+240 at bet365

Without lines on either five-star freshman for the opener, Williams is the best bet in terms of points in this one.

The fifth-year senior is coming off a season in which he averaged 11.2 points per game as the offense’s third option. His role is set to expand this year and his consistency as a 3-point shooter could be the difference tonight.

Last season, Williams topped 12.5 points 13 times in 33 games (39%) and his scoring will be a big reason the Over hits.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Auburn vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

The line hasn’t moved much with Baylor opening as a 1.5 to two-point favorite and most books are staying right there. Auburn went 16-18 against the spread last season while Baylor was slightly better at 17-16-1.

The total has been shifting up since opening at 142. Most books now have it at 145 to 145.5. Both teams were better bets with the Over last season.

Auburn was an impressive 21-13 betting the Over with Baylor at 18-16. The Tigers have hit the game total Over in 19 of their last 27 games and always seem to carry their weight hitting the team total Over in 18 of their last 27 games. 

Auburn vs Baylor betting trend to know

Auburn has hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+4.00 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Baylor.

Auburn vs Baylor game info

Auburn vs Baylor key injuries

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