Get ready for the start of the Big Ten season when the Northwestern Wildcats meet the Iowa Hawkeyes at 7:00 p.m. at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
The Wildcats are a slow-playing group that leads with its defense, and my Northwestern vs. Iowa predictions expect a physical game with both defenses excelling.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Tuesday, December 3 on Peacock.
Northwestern vs Iowa prediction
My best bet
Under 148 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Northwestern Wildcats rely on defense to win games. They have good length but play an uber-slow tempo and rely on points from turnovers.
Northwestern has forced at least six steals in six consecutive games, contributing to its average of 14 points from turnovers per game.
The Wildcats likely won’t score that many points from turnovers, as the Iowa Hawkeyes' 1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio and 20 assists per game may make getting 14 points from swipes difficult.
Northwestern is a below-average shooting group from inside the arc (49% effective field goal percentage) but more capable from downtown (32%). Iowa is a nightmare to shoot against from long range (26%), which means Northwestern must play snail ball and defend the arc.
That’s why I’m playing the Under.
The defenses are stronger than the shooters, which will result in a low-scoring game in Iowa City. Northwestern is likely to struggle to score, and while it may not get many steals, it excels at defending the perimeter and is the superior rebounding team.
The Wildcats have the experience to slow the game down, which will hinder an Iowa offense that relies on a fast tempo, excellent ball movement, and shooting 37% from beyond the arc.
Opening night often brings nerves, and draining long bombs against the respective perimeter defenders will be challenging, leading us to expect a lower total score
Northwestern vs Iowa same-game parlay
Under 148
Payton Sandfort Over 2.5 threes
Nick Martinelli Over 0.5 threes
While I like both teams' perimeter defenses, Iowa relies heavily on the three, and Northwestern may be forced to shoot more triples to catch up.
Iowa guard Payton Sandfort is a 35% career shooter from downtown looking for a breakout game. The senior forward has only made three of his previous 21 attempts from downtown, but he’ll fire at least seven tonight, and I like his chances to bounce back.
Northwestern forward Nick Martinelli leads the Wildcats in scoring. The junior forward drains 60% of his two triple attempts per night. He’s knocked down one triple in five of his eight games this season.
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Northwestern vs Iowa odds
Northwestern vs Iowa live odds
Northwestern vs Iowa opening odds
- Spread: Northwestern +5.5 (-110) | Iowa -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Northwestern +205 | Iowa -250
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Northwestern vs Iowa betting trend to know
Iowa has only hit the Team Total Over in 15 of its last 34 games (-6.75 Units / -17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Iowa.
How to watch Northwestern vs Iowa
| Location: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Northwestern vs Iowa key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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