I hope you plan on staying up late tonight. If not, correct that oversight in your schedule — the No. 25 Baylor Bears head to Tucson to face the Arizona Wildcats in a tantalizing conference clash.
Both teams are hot, but my Baylor vs. Arizona predictions side with the Wildcats.
Find out more in my college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 14.
Baylor vs Arizona prediction
My best bet
Arizona -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both teams are in similar spots as talented programs on the fringe of the Top 25. After falling short in non-conference play, they are heating up to begin the Big 12 portion of the schedule.
While that might lead one to believe this will be a close game, the situational factors have me taking the Wildcats as the home favorite. Allow me to explain.
Baylor is running a short rotation, especially since Langston Love and Jalen Celestine have been out with ankle injuries for the last three games. Scott Drew used just seven players in an overtime win over Arizona State on Saturday, and his rotation will be just as short if Love and/or Celestine don’t return on Tuesday (both are described as “game-time decisions).
The new travel dynamic and playing in unfamiliar road environments is a tricky part of conference realignment. Compound that with the fact this “Pac-12 road trip” has proven difficult for away teams in the past and that Baylor is on the second leg of such a trip with a banged-up roster, and I’m laying the points with Arizona.
Tommy Lloyd will look to push the pace and expose his opponent's tired legs. The Wildcats rank 53rd in adjusted tempo per KenPom, and this is a perfect opportunity for them to establish their style of play against a Baylor defense that was exposed to tough competition in the non-conference portion of the schedule but has " inflated” its numbers lately against overmatched opponents.
Baylor is a talented team that is still finding its footing. Its offense relies on grabbing offensive rebounds, ranking 18th nationally with 14.1 per game. That style of play will be difficult to execute against an Arizona team that ranks ninth in rebounding percentage (56.4%).
The Cats were exposed in that area on Saturday, surrendering 19 offensive boards to UCF — the most they’ve allowed in regulation since January 20, 2022.
Lloyd eschewed his normally calm and optimistic demeanor to lambast his team’s efforts on the board, so I’m betting on them responding well after an uncharacteristic performance.
Baylor vs Arizona same-game parlay
Arizona -5.5
Over 149.5
The Over correlates best with an Arizona cover as the Wildcats like to run and gun offensively, so a somewhat comfortable win likely includes them executing their desired style of play.
I expect Lloyd to fully put the pedal to the metal here against a Baylor team running a short rotation. Even if Love and/or Celestine play, they’re unlikely to be at 100%, and a wise game plan would include pushing the tempo and forcing them into constant difficult situations.
Baylor has tended to get into high-scoring games on the road, especially in the first half. The Bears are 21-12 O/U to the 1H total in their last 33 away trips. That number can be had at 70.5 currently at bet365.
The Bears are an adept 3-point shooting team (36.7%) and should let it fly against a Wildcats defense that allows a ton of volume behind the arc (290th in 3-point attempt rate per Haslametrics).
On the flip side, the Wildcats excel at scoring near the hoop and may exploit a Bears defense that ranks 182nd in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics).
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Baylor vs Arizona odds
Baylor vs Arizona live odds
Baylor vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +5.5 | Arizona -5.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +190 | Arizona -230
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Arizona betting trend to know
Baylor is 0-3 ATS in road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Arizona.
How to watch Baylor vs Arizona
| Location: | McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-14-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Baylor vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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