The West Virginia Mountaineers need a win when they welcome the Baylor Bears to town for a Big 12 battle.
After a season that started with so much promise, the Mountaineers have struggled lately. They've lost three straight games in a losing streak that began with an overtime loss against Kansas State. However, the latest result was likely the most disappointing, losing by double-digits to Kansas in a game in which it was just a 1.5-point home underdog.
The Bear's season has been up and down. Unfortunately, they are also currently trending in a negative direction and have lost three games straight.
What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Baylor vs. West Virginia.
Baylor vs West Virginia best odds
Baylor vs West Virginia picks and predictions
With two teams needing a win, this handicap is quite tricky. My projections agree with that assessment and give West Virginia the nod by a single point. There are better ways to bet on this game, though: one is the total. So I'll be rolling with the Under as my best bet.
Since we mentioned it at the onset, let's say it here. My projections see a decent edge here on the total, with a projection of 141.5 vs. the number 147.5 that is widely available. My handicap sees a street fight between the whistles as both teams desperately chase a win.
Let's start with how Baylor will defend West Virginia. Before we do that, though, let's mention something nice to have in our favor: Over the last three games, WVU has gotten just 19% of its scoring from beyond the 3-point line — the lowest for any Big 12 school during this same period.
It goes without saying that when you're on an Under, you want the teams in that specific game to shoot fewer threes. That will be the case for the Mountaineers. Now back to the analysis of the matchup. The Bears' no-middle defense hasn't been good this season, but you still have to shoot well to counter it, and West Virginia doesn't.
Its shooting has really suffered as it's gotten into the heart of Big 12 play. Over the last three games, the Mountaineers have posted an eFG% of 41.6%, which is also the worst in the Big 12. This seems like a pretty simple analysis on one end, WVU isn't shooting well, and it's going to be hard to score against Baylor's defense when you aren't doing that.
Some things could be improved with how the Mountaineers can defend the Bears.
Baylor has two outstanding dribble creators, Adam Flager and Keyonte George. That's been an issue for West Virginia in some of its previous games. However, given the situation, you're going to get a highly focused and intense Mountaineers' effort.
They can cut a few things off enough to the point to help this go Under. The most notable is the Bears' emphasis on getting transition scoring and WVU's ability to stop it. Baylor gets over 20% of its scoring in transition, and West Virginia's transition defense has been excellent. It grades out in the Top 10% of basketball and has allowed just .78 points per possession this season.
I'm rolling with the Under here. It's not going to be without a sweat, but It's the best side in a game that likely comes down to the final possession.
My best bet: Under 148 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Baylor vs West Virginia spread analysis
I find it difficult to separate these two teams. Baylor has the better players, and I'm inclined to lean toward it here. However, it has burnt me a few times this season in spots where it had notable talent advantages.
It goes to Morgantown to face a team that is 0-2 in Big 12 play. That's not a proposition I want to back, and, within the same token, I have no desire to back West Virginia, given its shooting woes. I'll stay away.
The backboard will be key here. It's one spot where you can succinctly say that one team has an advantage. Baylor's offensive rebounding is elite. Its percentage sits seventh nationally and has been a catalyst to its success over the past few seasons. It's been a bit more hit-and-miss this season, but if it reigns supreme tonight, it will spell doom for WVU.
Baylor vs West Virginia Over/Under analysis
We're on the Under, as previously noted. No team wants to fall to 0-3 in conference play, and both teams are at risk of that happening here. Given what's at stake, this should serve up a recipe for a low-scoring affair for both situational and matchup reasons outlined above.
The Over is actually quite trendy for both of these teams. Bears' games have gone Over four straight times against a team with a winning record, while the Mountaineers have gone Over at a clip of 27-10 over their last 37.
However, this is an example of a market over adjustment, and I will trust my numbers. This total opened at 147.5 at virtually all books, got to 148 at a few, then immediately was hit at most. That's the right move, and we're following suit.
Baylor vs West Virginia betting trend to know
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. Find more College basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Baylor State.
Baylor vs West Virginia game info
| Location: | WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN+ |
