The St. John’s Red Storm will start their Big East Tournament run with a quarterfinal matchup against the Butler Bulldogs in front of a friendly crowd at Madison Square Garden.
The Red Storm have been dominant on defense all season long, and I’m counting on that continuing as I take the Under in my Butler vs. St. John’s predictions.
I’ll analyze this tournament showdown in my free college basketball picks for Thursday, March 13.
Who will win Butler vs St. John's?
Butler has played reasonably well in its two games against St. John’s this year, and the Bulldogs will be confident coming off a victory over the Providence Friars on Tuesday.
But Butler is no match for the Red Storm, who've won 16 of their last 17 games and are in line for at least a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The suffocating defense of St. John’s will shut down Butler and get the Red Storm into the Big East semifinals.
Butler vs St. John's prediction
My best bet: Under 145.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Rick Pitino has St. John’s in position to be a real contender in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s all thanks to one of the best defensive units you’ll find anywhere in the country.
The Red Storm allow just 66.3 points per game, holding opponents to an anemic 40.2% from the floor. KenPom likes the defensive effort even better than the raw numbers suggest, ranking St. John’s third in the country in adjusted defensive rating.
What the Red Storm don’t have is the consistent offensive firepower many of the other top contenders nationally can boast. RJ Luis Jr. (18.1 ppg) is a legitimate scorer who has blossomed in his junior year but doesn’t have as much help as Pitino would like.
Only two other players are scoring more than 10 ppg for St. John’s, and the team only shoots 29.9% from three-point range — a number that is downright awful in modern competitive basketball.
But that defense is truly great, and it should be more than a match for anything Butler can bring to the table. The Bulldogs are averaging a solid 74.4 ppg, but the Red Storm held them to an average of 66 ppg in their two meetings this season.
Jahmyl Telfort (16.2 ppg) and Pierre Brooks (15.2 ppg) can score in bunches but don’t have the talent level it'll likely take to crack this St. John’s defense.
In a game where the Red Storm want to assert their dominance, I expect them to fully shut down Butler. I'm taking the Under in this game with St. John’s lacking the offense to singlehandedly get to a high total.
Butler vs St. John's same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 145.5
Butler +12.5
Pierre Brooks Under 14.5 points
While I like the St. John’s defense to keep tonight’s final Under the total, that effort will make it hard to blowout the Bulldogs. Butler only lost the two regular season matchups against the Red Storm by six and eight points, and will likely to keep this game within 10 points or so even if it's highly unlikely to pull off an upset.
On that note, I’m taking Butler forward Pierre Brooks to come in under his scoring total of 14.5 points. While Brooks had a big game against Providence on Wednesday, that followed a stretch of four games in which he only scored more than 14 points once — putting up exactly 15 against the Xavier Musketeers last week.
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Butler vs St. John's odds
Butler vs St. John's live odds
Butler vs St. John's opening odds
- Spread: Butler +12.5 | St. John's -12.5
- Moneyline: Butler +575 | St. John's -850
- Over/Under: Over 145.5 | Under 145.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Butler vs St. John's betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between St. John’s and Butler. Find more college basketball betting trends for Butler vs St. John's.
How to watch Butler vs St. John's
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Butler vs St. John's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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