ACC Conference tournament action continues tonight with California taking on Stanford.
The Golden Bears got here via a double overtime thriller win over Virginia Tech, and my California vs. Stanford predictions explain why that opens the door for Maxime Raynaud to dominate Cal tonight.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 12.
California vs Stanford prediction
Who will win California vs Stanford?
Yesterday, I wrote about why California could be somewhat dangerous in a tournament setting because of a unique combo of being due for shot regression and having a significant shot volume advantage.
Then yesterday happened, and the situational aspects of this one became significantly more challenging to overcome. I'll lean on the experience of head man Kyle Smith to get the Cardinal home.
My best bet: Maxime Raynaud 15+ points and 10+ rebounds (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
If the Bears aren't tired, then they aren't human. California has now played six overtime periods in its last two games, with some travel in between.
To make matters worse, we don't know the statuses of either Jovan Blackshear or Jeremiah Wilkinson (the former's injury did look the worst of the two). I think this will all catch up with Cal primarily on the backboard, and that's the primary tenant of my two-leg best bet.
Maxime Raynaud hit eight rebounds in the first meeting without these situational aspects in the first matchup. What happens with all this "other stuff" going on? Cal will take a hit on the backboard if Blackshear can't go, which is the most likely outcome.
In games against Top 200 opponents — basically anyone without a pulse — Cal has seen drops in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage without him on the floor.
Raynaud has plenty going for him that would make you back his ability to come down with boards against a team that may not have all their legs. His 7-foot-1 frame stands out, but he's also played in these postseason atmospheres multiple times throughout his career and will be prepared for the physicality they'll bring.
I also like that he typically becomes more dominant on the backboard the more significant the games; that's highlighted in a defensive rebounding percentage two full points higher than his average when playing Top 50 opponents this season. I suspect we will see that same approach today, making this number very attainable.
As far as the points go, for the most part, Raynaud can walk into the building with 15 points. That sounds like I'm oversimplifying things, but that's what we've seen this season. At least lately.
Raynaud has eclipsed this number in 10 of his last 11 games and has hit every game except once when hitting double-digit backboards. Again, the legs come into play. California is a fairly physical team, but you must wonder how it'll hold up here — especially against a player who already scored 20 points against it in the regular season.
California vs Stanford same-game parlay (SGP)
Maxime Raynaud 15+ points
Maxime Raynaud 10+ rebounds
Stanford -5.5
Even with the added juice, my projections saw slightly more value in this.
The reasoning is mostly a repeat of what we've said above. I don't know how much Stanford has left in the tank, especially considering that a thin rotation is now even thinner. But beyond that, there are a few notable tactical advantages at play that can be overcome.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
California vs Stanford odds
California vs Stanford live odds
California vs Stanford opening odds
- Spread: California +5.5 | Stanford -5.5
- Moneyline: California +184 | Stanford -225
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
California vs Stanford betting trend to know
California has hit the team total Over in 20 of its last 32 games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for California vs. Stanford.
How to watch California vs Stanford
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
California vs Stanford key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
