Cincinnati vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Lakhin's End-to-End Contributions Key

Tune into any Big 12 basketball game and chances are that you’re getting a good one. This conference is so stacked that every week brings a bevy of quality showdowns. 

One of those on tap for Saturday is in Waco, where Wes Miller’s Cincinnati Bearcats (12-3, 1-1 Big 12) face Scott Drew’s No. 14 Baylor Bears (13-2, 2-0) at the brand-new Foster Pavilion. It will be the Bears’ annual “Go Gold” game.

Checking the college basketball odds, the Bears are favored by 6.5 points while the total resides at 150.5. 

This is an intriguing matchup where Baylor’s elite offensive backcourt is matched up with a Bearcats team that excels at crashing the boards and attacking the rim. 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Baylor on Saturday, January 13.

Cincinnati vs Baylor best odds

Cincinnati vs Baylor picks and predictions

Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears have rattled off four straight wins heading into the weekend, including opening Big 12 play at 2-0 with victories over BYU (81-72) and Oklahoma State (75-70). 

They check into the weekend ranked 14th overall in KenPom — fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. For the second year in a row, this squad pairs elite bucket-getting on one end with a questionable stop unit on the other. 

This team is once again all about its backcourt with four guards averaging double-figures — wunderkind freshman Ja’Kobe Walter (15.3 points per game), veteran do-it-all RayJ Dennis (13.9 ppg), and juniors Langston Love (11.3 ppg) and Jayden Nunn (10 ppg). Their next test is yet another tough conference opponent. 

This was supposed to be a down season for Wes Miller and the Cincinnati Bearcats, who lost four of their Top 5 scorers from a year ago and faced the difficult challenge of transitioning from the AAC to the Big 12. That hasn’t been the case thus far as Miller’s squad has won 12 of its first 15 games, including an upset victory at BYU to begin Big 12 play. 

They followed that up with a 1-point loss at home against Texas, and it took all of Longhorns forward Dylan Disu’s career-high 33 points — and Max Abmas’ go-ahead jumper with eight seconds remaining — to topple the Bearcats.

Miller’s squad checks in at 32nd overall in KenPom, including rankings of 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Behemoth Viktor Lakhin leads the way with 14.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while wing Daniel Skillings (10.9 ppg) and guard Day Day Thomas (10.3 ppg) also average double figures. 

The Bearcats make their hay on the boards, ranking second nationally in rebounding percentage (58.7%) and Top 10 in both offensive rebounds per game (14.5) and opponent offensive rebounds per game allowed (7.1). 

I like there to be points and will be targeting the Over with my best bet. 

Baylor is elite offensively, pouring in 87.7 ppg. This will be the Bears’ third game at Foster Pavilion and they’re averaging 89.5 ppg in their previous two at their new home, so I think they’re primed for another strong showing against a Cincinnati team that plays with a decent pace (106th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric). 

On the other side, it’s well known that the way to attack Baylor’s defense is to get downhill and at the rim. The Bearcats do just that offensively, ranking 21st in near-proximity attempt rate (per Haslametrics), and therefore they should be able to expose a Baylor interior defense that ranks just 333rd in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed and third-worst in field goal percentage allowed at the rim (69% per Hoop-Math).

The Bearcats have ample size to relentlessly attack Baylor freshman forward Yves Missi in the paint. They’re also an elite offensive rebounding team that will clean up its own misses and go right back to the well. 

These teams have combined to go 17-12 O/U this season, and I’ll bet on another Over. 

My best bet: Over 150.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Cincinnati vs Baylor same-game parlay

Over 151

Viktor Lakhin Over 7.5 rebounds

+300 at DraftKings

This is a two-leg SGP featuring my best bet on the full game Over combined with Cincinnati forward Lakhin exceeding his rebounding prop of 7.5. 

The 6-foot-11 Lakhin has been tremendous for Cincinnati this season and will need to be on his ‘A’ game for the Bearcats to have a chance at the upset. I expect him to be as big of a part of the game plan as ever against a backcourt-centric Baylor team. 

As mentioned earlier, Baylor is prone to allowing easy buckets at the hoop. I expect him to be parked down low, charged with walling off the rim defensively to prevent Baylor’s elite guard drive game in addition to finding buckets down low (and grabbing misses) on the offensive end. 

Lakhin averages 8.1 rebounds per game and at the very least we’re getting a smidge of perceived value here in a game where he should be utilized heavily. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cincinnati vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a little bit of movement in the line already as Cincinnati opened +6.5, was bet down to +5.5, and then moved back to +6.5. The total has been headed downward, opening at 154 before falling to 150.5 at current. Track the fluctuation using our college basketball line movement tool.  

Baylor has been dominant against the spread this season at 10-3-1 ATS. Its also been very difficult to topple at home with a perfect 9-0 record straight up. 

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 6-9 ATS. It has been an underdog just three times, going 1-2 ATS with the one win being a notable one in an 11-point victory at BYU as a 10-point underdog. 

The Bearcats are still a bit of an enigma to me. They were supposed to take a step back this season but have played well overall and may not be the punching bag that some expected them to be in Big 12 play. 

That said, they’ve played a low level of competition. They fell flat against both Xavier (five-point loss) and Dayton (14-point loss) in their two most difficult non-conference matchups. I’m not ready to become a full-fledged believer after one impressive win over BYU — a good team, but one that’s likely overrated (I faded the Cougars successfully against Baylor on Tuesday). 

If playing a side, I’d be inclined to lay the points with the home team. Baylor is no joke at home while Cincinnati hasn’t proven it can hang with great teams for a prolonged stretch of games. That doesn’t mean that the Bearcats aren’t capable of doing so, but the non-conference results against tougher competition leave me with more questions than answers. 

Cincinnati vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor is 7-2 ATS at home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Baylor.

Cincinnati vs Baylor game info

Cincinnati vs Baylor key injuries

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