Just because it's conference tournament time and just because March can get Mad does not mean we should abandon basic gambling principles.
While the Iowa State Cyclones are known for their defense and the Cincinnati Bearcats got off to a relatively slow start yesterday, those are not strong enough reasons for sportsbooks to lower this afternoon’s first-half total as far as they have.
My Cincinnati vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks do not expect a high-scoring first half, but it should still be high-scoring enough. Tip comes at 12:30 ET on Wednesday, March 12.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State prediction
Who will win Cincinnati vs Iowa State?
Do not overthink this. Iowa State is a Top-10 type of team. Cincinnati is a bubble team.
The Cyclones beat the Bearcats by 11 points a month ago, turning a tied game at halftime into a second-half rout. In fact, Cincinnati led with 13 minutes left before Iowa State rattled off a 23-11 run in the next seven minutes to take firm control. The Bearcats never again got closer than six.
The Cyclones should find another such run today.
My best bet: First half Over 63 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Basic basketball math halves a game’s total and then takes another bucket off to create a first-half total. If a game’s spread is in the two-possession area, say -5 to -6.5, then pretty simple logic could imagine a parade of free throws at the end of the game, so perhaps an even lower first-half total would make sense.
However, this game’s total is at 134.5 while the first-half total is 63. This logic thinks that first-half total is a bucket too low.
A full-game spread of -9 should not project to Iowa State taking too many late free throws, especially since the Cyclones make 75.7% of their free throws, led by senior guard Curtis Jones’ 83.7%. If he's intentionally fouled late, he will make his free throws to snuff out Cincinnati’s comeback hopes.
The best argument for setting this first-half total so low is that it will begin in the a.m. locally and T-Mobile Center will be, at best, half full. Yesterday’s first game, also involving Cincinnati, claimed an attendance of 6,406 in the 18,000-seat building.
Iowa State may bring in more fans than Oklahoma State, but this early mid-week tip is still likely to be played in an empty building, which can always make 3-point shooting trickier against cavernous backdrops.
However, neither of these teams likes shooting 3-pointers. The Bearcats are outright bad at them — ranking No. 13 in the Big 12 by making 30.2% in conference play, fortunately taking them on only 36.7% of shots, No. 10 in the conference — while Iowa State avoids taking them, ranking No. 11 in Big 12 play in that regard.
The Cyclones are nearly as likely to score points via free throws as they are 3-pointers. Those shots should still come.
The venue and the expected atmosphere have artificially lowered this first-half total. Betting into an Under in that moment makes sense when the total is set as normal. When it has been preemptively lowered, there is value to be had on the early Over.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State same-game parlay (SGP)
First half Over 63
Under 134.5
Iowa State -9
This counterintuitive same-game parlay creates an exaggerated payout, but the final two legs go hand-in-hand. If Iowa State wins this game easily, perhaps thanks to another 23-11 run in the second half, then the final 90 seconds will be spent running out the clock.
That would lend itself to the Cyclones covering this three-bucket spread and this game falling short of its full-game total despite a relatively high-scoring first half. Four of Iowa State’s last five games have gone Under their totals, covering the spread in three of those four.
If granting the thought that the first-half total has been knocked down too low by a bucket, the rest of this SGP fits a specific game flow.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State odds
Cincinnati vs Iowa State live odds
Cincinnati vs Iowa State opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +8.5 | Iowa State -8.5
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +325 | Iowa State -425
- Over/Under: Over 136 | Under 136
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Do not be fooled by Cincinnati’s decisive opening win in the Big 12 Tournament. The Bearcats entered the postseason on a three-game losing streak despite being favored in two of those games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Cincinnati vs Iowa State
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Cincinnati vs Iowa State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
